NY-Sen: Siena Poll Shows Gillibrand Improving In General Election Contests

by: robert.harding

Tue Dec 15, 2009 at 12:10:45 PM EST

The Siena poll found the following:

- Gillibrand's favorable rating is 31 percent, which is a decrease from last month's 34 percent rating but still keeps her above 30 percent. Her unfavorable rating is 22 percent - the lowest it has been since August. Those who don't know or have no opinion come in at 47 percent and while that still is a lot of ground to cover, it is still below 50 percent of the respondents.

- Bill Thompson's favorable is lower than Gillibrand's. He comes in at 25 percent and his unfavorable rating is 17 percent. There are 58 percent of respondents who don't know him or have no opinion of him, so he's behind Gillibrand in that respect.

- In a primary featuring Gillibrand, Thompson, Harold Ford Jr. and Jonathan Tasini, Gillibrand wins with 32 percent of the vote. Thompson is second with 23 percent, Ford nets seven percent of the vote and Tasini is last with three percent. That part of the poll makes it clear that, at least today, Gillibrand is the top of the Democratic crop of candidates. She is the strongest of any of them.

- In head-to-head matchups with with Gillibrand and two top Republican candidates, Gillibrand fares well. While she would lose to Rudy Giuliani 49 percent to 42 percent, she would defeat George Pataki 46 percent to 43 percent.

The Gillibrand-Giuliani matchup is especially good for Gillibrand since in October, she was 17 points behind Giuliani. Now, she only trails by seven points 11 months out from the general election and nine months out of the primary.

- Giuliani and Pataki both have favorable ratings over 50 percent (Giuliani is at 58 percent while Pataki enjoys a 53 percent favorable rating) but neither get over 50 percent against Gillibrand.

Gillibrand has plenty of work to do to make herself a favorite for the general election next year. But one thing is becoming clear. She is the option for Democrats next year. If she can do this well in a poll against Thompson, who is coming off a battle for mayor in New York City (a place where Gillibrand hasn't run a full-blown campaign as of yet) then that is a good sign for her.

Another good sign is beating out Pataki. She was ahead of Pataki by one percentage point in the last Siena poll so increasing that lead to three points is a good sign that more and more voters see her as a better candidate than Pataki. Of course, Pataki doesn't want to run for Senate, but considering his name recognition (he was governor for 12 years), beating him in a poll isn't a bad thing.  

NY-23: Scozzafava Leads In Siena Poll By Seven

by: robert.harding

Thu Oct 01, 2009 at 12:00:26 PM EDT

Scozzafava comes in at 35 percent with Owens behind her at 28 percent. Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman, who has been trying to tout himself as the conservative option to Scozzafava, stands at 16 percent.

Some of the other highlights of the poll include:

- The poll asked respondents who would be the best candidate on six different issues: The economy, health care, wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, education, homeland security and bringing federal dollars to the district. Owens won or is tied with Scozzafava on five of the six issues. The only issue Owens lost to Scozzafava was the economy (25 percent to 23 percent, according to the poll). Those surveyed said that Owens would be best to address health care, the wars abroad and homeland security, while he tied with Scozzafava on education and bringing money to the district.

- An endorsement from former Congressman John McHugh might be helpful in the eyes of some voters. Of those surveyed, 40 percent said an endorsement from McHugh would make them more likely to support a candidate. Only seven percent said McHugh's endorsement would make them less likely to support a candidate.

Here are some other details from the press release:

Scozzafava leads Owens 53-23 percent, with 10 percent for Hoffman in the western North Country counties (Jefferson, Lewis and St. Lawrence). Owens's largest lead is in the Central New York counties of Madison, Oneida and Oswego, 30 percent to 20 percent each for Scozzafava and Hoffman. The Democrat and Republican are virtually tied in the five counties of the eastern North Country (Clinton, Essex, Franklin, Fulton, and Hamilton), 32 percent for Owens, 31 percent for Scozzafava and 18 percent for Hoffman.

Scozzafava is viewed favorably by 33 percent of voters and unfavorably by 20 percent, with 47 percent not having an opinion. Owens has a 23-12 percent favorable rating, with 64 percent of voters undecided, while Hoffman has a 16-13 percent favorable rating, with 71 percent of voters undecided.

The good news for Owens is that he is still in this. He also has a good showing when it is broken up into issues. Being able to be trusted on certain issues is key and when voters trust you more than the Republican on most issues, that says a lot (even though he still trails in the overall poll).

Keep in mind that Owens has stayed out of the limelight for most of this. He has a few TV ads out, but he's let Scozzafava and Hoffman duke it out. That has its advantages. But he will need to get this party going if he plans on winning next month.

NY-Gov, NY-Sen: Paterson's Favorable Rating Down, Gillibrand's Numbers Drop

by: robert.harding

Tue Sep 22, 2009 at 11:51:05 AM EDT

Governor Paterson has a 29 percent favorable rating in the new poll. It is the first time since May that his numbers dropped below 30 percent and does not serve him well after the news came out that President Barack Obama doesn't want Paterson to run next year. It is hard to make a case for Paterson running next year with numbers like that a year out from the primary.

When asked about next year's elections, 71 percent said that they "prefer someone else" over Paterson. That is a tie for the highest percentage of respondents saying that they want someone other than Paterson. Only 14 percent said they would elect Paterson.

Attorney General Andrew Cuomo fares better than Paterson in a primary and against hypothetical general election opponents. If the race between Cuomo and Paterson was held today, Cuomo would win 66 percent to 20 percent. In general election contests, Paterson beats Republican Lazio 39 percent to 35 percent with Cuomo beating Lazio 64 percent to 18 percent. Paterson loses to Republican Rudy Giuliani 52 percent to 35 percent with Cuomo knocking off Giuliani 52 percent to 39 percent.

By comparison, Cuomo's favorable rating is at 66 percent. In a separate question, 47 percent of respondents said that they would rather see Cuomo run for governor than attorney general.

For Gillibrand, the numbers are a little better given her time in office (eight months) and her status as still a statewide unknown. Her favorable rating is 29 percent, which is the same as last month. However, her unfavorable rating is at 24 percent - the highest it has been since Siena starting asking people about Gillibrand.

The poll only focused on one possible opponent for Gillibrand this month and that was Giuliani. In the matchup, Giuliani would win 46 percent to 38 percent. Those numbers aren't bad considering Giuliani's name recognition statewide compared to Gillibrand. But it does show Gillibrand has a long way to go.

A final stat to take notice of in the poll is this question:

As things stand now, if the election for State Senate were held today, would you vote to re-elect your incumbent Senator or would you prefer someone else?

Only 38 percent of respondents said they would vote to re-elect their incumbent senator. Another 45 percent said they would vote for someone else. Those numbers are worth highlighting because of everything that has happened in the state senate. I don't think it should sweep up the good senators, but I do hope it rids the New York State Senate of ineffective legislators whose only goal in Albany is to line their own pockets and expand their influence.

Siena Poll: Voters Don't Think Much Of New York Elected Officials

by: robert.harding

Mon Aug 24, 2009 at 10:19:06 AM EDT

Respondents were asked about the integrity, work ethic, fairness and intelligence of today's elected officials in New York compared to those 40 or 50 years ago.

By a margin of 54-7 percent, voters say today's New York politicians have less integrity than their counterparts from 40 or 50 years ago. By a 54-11 percent margin, voters say today's politicians work less hard for their constituents. When it comes to fairness - lack of bias and self-interest - 44 percent of voters say today's politicians are less fair, with 11 percent saying more fair. On the issue of intelligence, 30 percent say today's politicians are less intelligent and 23 percent say they are more intelligent.

"Voters are fairly evenly divided on the issue of politicians' intelligence. However, they overwhelmingly say that today's politicians have less integrity, work less hard for their constituents and demonstrate less fairness than New York politicians of 40 or 50 years ago," said Siena New York pollster Steven Greenberg. "Although older voters, Republicans and upstaters feel even more strongly, pluralities of young voters, Democrats, and New York City voters also have far less regard for today's pols than those of two generations ago.

That says a lot about the state of New York government. We do have some good elected officials, but because of the system in which they operate, they are overshadowed by the corruption, dysfunction and ineptitude.

The only area where current elected officials came close to competing with the elected officials of 40 or 50 years ago was intelligence. Everything else - fairness, integrity and work ethic - did not give today's elected officials a positive review.

The poll also found strong support for a constitutional convention. Of those surveyed, 63 percent would like to see a constitutional convention.

Steve Greenberg summed it up best when discussing the results of the question about a constitutional convention:

"While the issue of a convention is not popular with many elected officials, it is with their constituents."

We have a lot to talk about going forward. The coup that held up the New York State Senate for a month highlighted the problems in Albany. While we have supported reform for a long time, more and more citizens want Albany changed, especially with the recent events there. This poll shows that reform is on the minds of many voters. It should be on the minds of our elected officials as well.

NY Voters Angry at Senate, Vow to Remember in 2010

by: jmcbride

Tue Jul 21, 2009 at 13:48:29 PM EDT

By a large majority, the poll says voters will remember this fiasco when they go to the polls in November 2010.  Incumbent senators, thinking they will seek reelection, must be hoping that number will drop off significantly.  Obviously, some senators are in much more trouble than others.

I'm working on a conference for bloggers, grassroots organizers, potential candidates and staffers to organize for the 2010 November elections. Most likely it will be in Albany on September 26.  We need more and better Democrats at all levels of government, but now is the time to work on the New York State Senate.  Please be in touch with me if you can help and or have relevant thoughts to share.  

It's Transparency, Stupid. Are you Listening, Governor?

by: Roatti

Mon Apr 20, 2009 at 12:17:46 PM EDT

It appears that Paterson's decision to sacrifice transparency in favor of a timely budget backfired. When presented with 10 potential factors for the Governor's declining popularity and more than half of voters say that his handling of the state's finances, giving raises to his staff and negotiating the budget in secret were factors that greatly contributed to his falling approval ratings.

Sixty-three percent of voters said that the secrecy of the budget proceeding "contributed greatly" to his declining popularity, while another 24 percent said it "somewhat contributed."

It appears that at long last, transparency and budget reform has become a salient issue for votors. It's not clear why this is suddenly becoming an issue because after all, Paterson is not the first Governor to conduct budget negotiations in secret, not by a long shot.  But perhaps there is a voter backlash developing because for decades in the Senate minority and during his brief stint as Lieutenant Governor, Paterson was a harsh critic of the secret budget process.

Simply put, Paterson's reputation may have led voters to believe and hope he would change things in Albany and by turning all three branches of state government over to the Democrats last fall, voters were actually expecting change.  And so far it's not an understatement to say those hopes been tragically unfulfilled.  

I do not think this bodes well for the 2010 elections.  The GOP are of course, no better.  The whole dismal state that is Albany was largely the fault of Joe Bruno and Dean Skelos for the time they were in power, and giving the Senate back to the GOP will not make anything more transparent.  But as Paterson's own career illuminates, the out-of-power call for reform can be a compelling political message.

So now, if not for the ethical and democratic reasons, at least that the voters are paying attention, I think it's time to shape up before we get shipped out.  

Siena Poll: Gov Continues Slide, Marriage Equality Gaining Steam

by: phillip anderson

Mon Apr 20, 2009 at 10:45:56 AM EDT

The numbers for Paterson are pretty much universally bad, but the one that really sticks out is this one. Only 12 percent of New Yorkers are prepared to vote for Paterson next year. A whopping 71 percent are looking to vote for an unnamed "someone else." The Governor even loses out to his immediate predecessors as New Yorkers would prefer to see Mario Cuomo, George Pataki, or even Eliot Spitzer back in office over Paterson.

"Voters are pining for the days of Mario Cuomo (39 percent) and George Pataki (33 percent) as Governor," Greenberg said. "A plurality of Democrats and independent voters would choose Mario and a majority of Republicans chose George. While 14 percent of all voters want to see Spitzer back in the Capitol, only eight percent would opt to have Paterson as Governor if choosing among the last four to hold that office."

That's gotta hurt.

In other news, a majority of the state now supports Marriage Equality for all New Yorkers, support that is strongest in New York City, but is strong in all regions of the state.

Interesting times, these.

NY-20: New Siena Poll Shows 4 Point Murphy Lead

by: phillip anderson

Fri Mar 27, 2009 at 10:12:52 AM EDT

This morning's poll shows that independents are evenly split, that Murphy is seen as running a more positive campaign and that Tedisco's ads are still turning people off.

Murphy Takes 4-Point Lead Over Tedisco in Final Week
Tedisco Campaign Seen as More Negative; Murphy's More Positive

Loudonville, NY. As the special election in the 20th C.D. enters the final weekend, Democrat Scott Murphy has reversed a four-point deficit and turned it into a four-point lead over Republican Assembly Minority Leader James Tedisco. Murphy leads 47-43 percent, having trailed two weeks ago by a 45-41 percent margin, according to a new Siena (College) Research Institute poll of likely voters. Tedisco's campaign is viewed by voters as more negative by a 44-25 percent margin, while Murphy's campaign is seen as more positive. Regardless of who they are supporting, by a 45-35 percent margin, voters think Tedisco will win the election.

"While the percentage of likely voters supporting Murphy has risen about three points per week for the last four weeks, the percentage supporting Tedisco has dropped three points. In the last four weeks, Murphy turned a 12-point deficit into a four-point lead," said Steven Greenberg, spokesman for the Siena New York Poll.

"Murphy has sealed the deal with Democrats, leading 84-11 percent, while Tedisco has the support of less than two-thirds of Republicans, leading 64-27 percent. Independents are virtually tied, with Tedisco leading 45-44 percent, after trailing with independents by six points two weeks ago and leading by 14 points four weeks ago," Greenberg said. "Tedisco's 16-point lead in Rensselaer and Saratoga Counties two weeks ago is down to six points. Murphy slightly expanded his lead in the northern counties from 25 to 29 points, and turned a seven-point deficit in the southern portion of the district into a two-point lead in two weeks."

"Murphy is now virtually as well known to voters as Tedisco, and Murphy has a slightly better favorable rating, 49-38 percent, than Tedisco's 48-41 percent," Greenberg said. "Senator Kirsten Gillibrand continues to be rated favorably by more than three-quarters of voters, while President Obama is viewed favorably by nearly two-thirds.

"At least nine in ten voters have seen or heard a commercial for both Tedisco and Murphy. By a margin of 30-23 percent, voters say Murphy's ads make them less likely to vote for him. Two weeks ago voters said, 28-20 percent, Murphy's ads made them more likely to support Murphy. Tedisco's commercials fare even worse with voters. Only 14 percent of those who have seen Tedisco's commercials are more likely to support him, while 37 percent say the ads make them less likely to support Tedisco (12-28 percent two weeks ago). About half of voters said both candidates' ads have no effect on who they are supporting," Greenberg said.

Forty-two percent of voters credit Murphy with waging the more positive campaign, compared to 25 percent who say that describes Tedisco. Similarly, by a 44-25 percent margin, voters say Tedisco has been running a more negative campaign than Murphy. Nearly one in five voters says it's both candidates. More than two-thirds of Democrats say Murphy's campaign is more positive and Tedisco's more negative. Republicans see it more even, with 36 percent saying Murphy's been more negative and 29 percent saying Tedisco. Independents say Tedisco's more negative by 42-25 percent margin.

This is great news and all and seems to confirm the movement described in other polls being leaked all week. That said, these low turnout special elections are notoriously difficult to predict. It' going to come down to which campaign gets their people to the polls on Tuesday and to things like the weather. (Weather looks nice, btw)

GOTV.

On the web: Scott Murphy for Congress

NY-20: The Trend, Illustrated

by: phillip anderson

Thu Mar 12, 2009 at 11:15:14 AM EDT

I like the looks of that.

NY-20: New Siena Poll Shows Tedisco Lead Cut To Just 4 Points

by: phillip anderson

Thu Mar 12, 2009 at 10:17:25 AM EDT

Republican candidate Jim Tedisco - 45 (-1)
Democratic candidate Scott Murphy - 41 (+7)
Libertarian candidate Eric Sundwall - 1 (+1)

Wow.

From Siena:

Murphy Cuts Tedisco's Lead From 12 to 4 Points
Tedisco Rated Better on 4 Issues; Murphy on 2, Including Economy
Murphy Now Leads with Independent Voters, After Trailing 2 Weeks Ago

Loudonville, NY. With less than three weeks until the special election in the 20th C.D., Democrat Scott Murphy has cut Republican Assembly Minority Leader James Tedisco's 12-point lead by two-thirds. Tedisco now leads the race 45-41 percent, having led two weeks ago by a 46-34 percent margin, according to a new Siena (College) Research Institute poll of likely voters. While two weeks ago, voters said Tedisco would do a better job than Murphy representing them on six issues, Murphy now leads on two of those issues, including the most important issue for 20th C.D. voters: the economy.

"Scott Murphy has significantly narrowed the gap against Jim Tedisco, trailing by only four points in a district that has a 15-point Republican enrollment edge," said Steven Greenberg, spokesman for the Siena New York Poll. "Only 13 percent of voters remain undecided - down from 20 percent - and nearly 90 percent of voters say they are absolutely or fairly certain they will not change their minds.

"Murphy continues to do a better job of holding the support of Democrats, than Tedisco does with Republicans. The big turnaround from two weeks ago, however, is among independent voters, who previously gave Tedisco a significant 45-31 percent lead, and now favor Murphy by a 43-37 percent margin," Greenberg said. "Tedisco's leads in the Capital District and Hudson Valley fell slightly, while Murphy turned a slim two-point lead in the northern counties of the district into a now dramatic 25-point lead."

"Both candidates have become more known to voters over the last few weeks, as airwaves have been inundated with commercials and mailboxes have been filled with messages from both campaigns," Greenberg said. "Tedisco remains better known, with both higher favorable and unfavorable ratings from the voters.

"Eight in ten voters have seen or heard a commercial for Murphy, while 86 percent have seen or heard a Tedisco ad. By a margin of 28-20 percent, voters say Murphy's ads make them more likely to vote for him, with half of voters saying it has no effect on who they plan to support. Only 12 percent of those who have seen Tedisco's commercials are more likely to support him, while 28 percent say the ads make them less likely to support Tedisco, with 58 percent saying they have had no effect," Greenberg said.

"Voters continue to overwhelmingly think Tedisco will do a better job on homeland security. And by small margins, they also give him the edge on health care, education and bringing federal money into the district. Now, however, more voters think that Murphy will do a better job on successfully ending the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, and on addressing the economy, which is far and away the most important issue voters want their new Member of Congress to address," Greenberg said.

Emphasis mine.

This race is going to be tight and, as always with specials, it'll come down to good, old fashioned GOTV. But, this is a very winnable race. The CW was that this was Tedisco's to lose.

It looks as if he just may lose it after all.

On the web: Scott Murphy for Congress.

Paterson Is In Serious Trouble

by: phillip anderson

Tue Feb 24, 2009 at 12:35:56 PM EST

According to the SRI, his favorable/unfavorable number plunged from 54/30 to 40/47. It was 64/19 three months ago.

Only 28% of New Yorkers approve of his job performance compared to 69% who think he's stinking up the joint. Last month, 51% approved while only 45% disapproved.

Even worse, only 19% of voters are prepared to vote for Paterson next year. 59% prefer an unnamed "someone else." That's a 3 to 1 preference for someone without a name. To put this in perspective, 42% of voters in November preferred Paterson to the 32% who preferred the candidate to be named later.

That, friends, is just brutal.

And it gets worse. In potential 2010 matchups, Paterson is losing ground at a furious clip. He loses a hypothetical Democratic primary against Andrew Cuomo by 2 to 1, 27% to 53%. In November, Siena had these numbers reversed, with Paterson crushing 53% to 25%. That was a scant three months ago. Hell, the Governor lost 20 points against the Attorney General in the last month. Ouch.

As for potential GOP challengers, Paterson enjoys his one bright spot. He waxes poor Rick Lazio 46% to 28%. Great. But, Cuomo beats the hapless Lazio by a whopping 66% to 16%.

Against the "walking. sometimes talking mountain of fail" that is Rudy Giuliani, Paterson loses badly, 51% to 36%. Last month, Paterson beat Rudy 44% to 42%, a -17% swing in thirty days. In December, Paterson beat Rudy 51% to 38%.

In contrast, Cuomo beats Giuliani this month by the exact same margin, 51% to 38%.

To make matter even worse, 53% of New Yorkers think that the state is heading in the wrong direction, the highest ever recorded by Siena, compared to only 31% who think the state is on the "right track." 65% think that New York's economy is "poor." Only 37% believe their elected leaders are capable of solving the crisis compared to 61% who have no confidence at all that the budget crisis will be solved.

All these numbers add up to big, serious, profound trouble for Governor Paterson. If he really wants to be elected to a full term next year, he's got to turn this thing around and do it awfully damn quick. Numbers like these are will begin to severely damage his fundraising, a task that was already more difficult thanks to the economy's nosedive. That leads to more stories about how he's not viable in 2010 and to more headlines about a rudderless administration and to...more polls showing how he's not viable in 2010. It's a vicious cycle that can very easily begin to snowball and reinforce itself.

Paterson and his crew had better get it together and stop this freefall if they are to have any chance at all in 2010. Otherwise, they will be doing not much more than wasting everyone's time and money.

Siena Poll: Support For Stimulus, Fair Share Tax Reform Up; Paterson Down

by: robert.harding

Tue Feb 24, 2009 at 12:31:11 PM EST

Siena College has released their latest poll that finds Governor Paterson to have a 40 percent favorable rating among respondents. His unfavorable rating is at 47 percent. And what's worse, only 19 percent of those surveyed said they would vote for Paterson in 2010.

In fact, if a Democratic primary for governor were held today, Paterson would be crushed by Attorney General Andrew Cuomo. Cuomo leads 53 percent to 27 percent over Paterson. And if Paterson were to face Republican Rudy Giuliani in the general election, Giuliani would win 51 percent to 36 percent.

Also, the people of New York support raising taxes on those making $250,000 and those making more than $1 million per year. Of those surveyed, 59 percent say they support an tax increase on those making $250,000 and 77 percent support a tax increase on those making more than a million dollars per year.

And in direct opposition to Paterson's policies, 72 percent of respondents said that they oppose the budget cuts proposed by Paterson.

Steve Greenberg probably summed up these poll results best:

"David Paterson has reached a low water mark with voters since becoming Governor," said Steven Greenberg, spokesman for the Siena New York Poll. "Between the Senate appointment process, which is still the focus of negative reports one month later, and the attacks being waged across the media by those opposed to his budget proposals, the Governor is tumbling in the polls from record highs three months ago to new record lows."

It begs the question: Is Paterson paying attention to what New Yorkers want? Does he pay attention to these polls? Is he interested in doing what is in the best interest of New Yorkers?

You can make the argument that there is a direct correlation between Paterson's approval rating and his opposition to Fair Share Tax Reform, a millionaires tax and his support for budget cuts. Most New Yorkers support FSTR and oppose budget cuts. Paterson is the opposite. Therefore, Paterson's favorable rating is 40 percent. Is that a surprise? Definitely not.

Dan Cantor, Executive Director of the Working Families Party, puts everything in perspective with this statement:

"We've said it from the beginning: New Yorkers don't want to see the Empire State go back on its commitments to our school children, the sick, the elderly and the disabled.

Faced with an enormous budget gap brought about by the global economic downturn, the overwhelming majority of New Yorkers believe that instead of deep cuts, we should ask the wealthiest New Yorkers to pay a little more in taxes. But don't take our word for it.

A new poll released today by the Siena Research Institute is the most in-depth public poll to date measuring the attitudes of New Yorkers to the Governor's budget plan. The verdict: a resounding rejection of his cuts, and a clear call for real shared sacrifice along the lines of the Working Families Party's Fair Share Tax Reform proposal. Hopefully Albany is listening."

Governor Paterson, you might want to listen to the people of New York. If you do, I guarantee you this: You will win a primary in 2010 and you will be New York's governor for four more years. If you don't, you won't even make it out of the primary.

Candidates Respond To Siena Poll Results

by: robert.harding

Sun Nov 02, 2008 at 11:02:16 AM EST

This is the response from Bill Stachowski's campaign.

"Today's poll speaks for itself.  Voters here recognize that Democrat Bill Stachowski has a real record of saving jobs and fighting Republican outsourcing schemes. The more they learn about his Republican opponent's plan to maintain the status quo in Albany, the less they like."

Joe Mesi's campaign also responded about today's findings that indicated Mesi is running a tight race against Republican Mike Ranzenhofer.

"With the polls showing a neck-and-neck race, Joe Mesi's campaign is heading into the final 48 hours with a wave of momentum from endorsements by Senator Hillary Clinton and Governor David Paterson.  Joe Mesi will be fighting to the finish - talking to families across Western New York - with a marathon 'Countdown to Change' campaign blitz through each of the 17 towns of the Senate District in 17 hours on election eve."

Stachowski has had quite a turnaround, but there is still a lot of work to be done prior to Tuesday. Mesi is running neck-and-neck with Ranzenhofer and will be working hard over the next two days to earn a victory on Tuesday.

ON THE WEB:

Bill Stachowski's ActBlue Page

Joe Mesi's ActBlue Page

Analysis Of Siena Polls: Oct. 30

by: robert.harding

Thu Oct 30, 2008 at 11:19:44 AM EDT

Knowing the two upstate districts very well, there are a few things. First, in SD-56 that race is much closer than it appears. You have colleges in the district (yesterday's rally in Rochester was an example) that are energized for not only Barack Obama, but they also like this Rick Dollinger fellow a lot too. Knowing how these polls are conducted, they probably aren't able to target the youth vote. Also, I think Robach's win in Greece/Parma is overstated. He's going to win both. That goes without saying. That's his turf and he will win that area. But he's not going to win by 37 points as he is in the Siena poll.

Brighton and Rochester are going to be the keys for Dollinger and he is winning there right now. I would say that the margins of victory in those areas for Dollinger in this poll are pretty close to what they will be on Election Day. But I would watch for the Greece/Parma numbers on Nov. 4. That is where the difference will be made. If Dollinger can make it fairly close in Greece and then win big in Brighton and Rochester, Dollinger will win.

And if you want a sleeper, watch what Kathy Konst does on Election Day. Volker lost the Erie County portion of this district on Primary Day. Konst is a conservative Democrat who could win this district. Jumping six points in the poll and holding Volker at the same number he came in at last time could mean that this is a race. Keep an eye on this one. There are a lot of people sick of Volker's dirty tricks and tactics and that might play right into Konst's hands. The extreme negativity Volker has utilized might work against him on Tuesday.

There are a lot of questions heading into Tuesday. Luckily we won't have to wait long for the answers.

ON THE WEB:

Rick Dollinger's ActBlue Page

Kathy Konst's ActBlue Page

Remember, You Heard It Here First

by: phillip anderson

Thu Sep 25, 2008 at 17:09:18 PM EDT

Second, some analysis from Bruce Gyory at Newsday.

The battles will be fought in Republican districts, not on Democratic turf and therefore will resemble in miniature the 2006 race for the control of the Congress. Moreover, in light of these polls, it will be very difficult for the Republicans to justify spending money to try expanding the field of contested races to additional Democratic seats.

In the two Democratic seats polled: Craig Johnson in Nassau and Darrel Aubertine from the North Country held huge leads over their Republican challengers. Craig Johnson led Barbara Donno by 24% (49% to 25%) and Aubertine lead Renzi by 20% (51% to 31%). These margins were huge, considering that the Republicans' campaign committee was reported to have already spent $1 million on the two seats.

In my last blog, I speculted that Senator Dean Skelos would try to expand the number of contested Democratic seats beyond Johnson and Aubertine. Given that nine Republican Senate seats are being actively contested, it could prove controversial within the Republican Conference to spend money speculatively against Democratic Senators like Stachowski in Buffalo and Oppenheimer in Westchester, when Republicans like Padavan in Queens and Volker not to mention Alesi in Western New York are under pressure.

We've been writing about this for months now. After all the crowing about how awesome their recruiting was going to be, Bruno and Skelos mainly ended up with their second and third choices, not the top tier candidates that they were promising. It's been plainly obvious for quite some time, long before Bruno decided to ride off into the sunset and leave Skelos holding the bag, that this cycle was going to be fought for GOP seats, not Dem seats. Skelos apparently didn't get the memo though, as he has been spending loads of money on offense with second and third tier candidates while a good number of his incumbents, the folks that actually raised a good deal of that money, have been twisting in the wind. Skelos has been telling donors and others that they were actually going to win seats this year, but the results so far speak for themselves. They are in trouble and everyone knows it.

Dave Renzi isn't going to win back SD-48. Liz Feld isn't going to beat Suzi Oppenheimer. Andrea Stewart-Cousins isn't going to lose to the woman whose name I have already forgotten.

The battlegrounds are on their turf and they are playing defense from Suffolk to Canada. What's even worse is that they have to play defense perfectly. They have absolutely zero room for error. Given the way that Skelos has run the show so far, spending millions on longshots and neglecting his incumbents, I'd say that's a pretty tall order for Dean.

Back to Bruce:

Right now, in light of this polling data showing Johnson and Aubertine blowing away their Republican challengers, the number of truly contested races has been reduced to nine seats, all held by the Republicans. Also the Republicans have to be nervous that they have alredy spent at least $800,000 to bolster Serph Maltese in Queens and are in a tie with Addabbo. This may resemble the lost Spano seat from Westchester, to Republican strategists. A seat lost in 2006 after an 18-vote victory by Spano in 2004. Bottom line is that no matter how much the central Senate Republican camaign committee spent on the Spano seat, they could not overcome changing political demogrphics.

The net result of what this Siena polling data reveals is that if Skelos' political team proposes spending big political resources on expanding the playing field,at this point, it may be met with resistance from incumbent Senators. If they could not move the dial by spending a million dollars against their top targets Johnson and Aubertine, do they want to risk spending another speculative million dollars against second-tier targets? The Senate Republicans under assault (and their allies) may demand that the remaining resources of the central Republican campaign committee be focused on saving incumbent Republicans.

In 2006, this same pattern hit the national Republicans and what they found was that when you are on defense it is very difficult to resist the opposing political tide. You play great defense in one seat, but that opens a surprise hole in other districts. I feel great sympathy for Senator Skelos in light of this predicament. It is the consequence of the poor candidate recruitment ,which came under his predecessor's watch, who left in late June,when the candidate matchups were already set. It was not Senator skelos' fault.I understand how and why Skelos' team wishes it could change the map, but that is probably too late.

I have to disagree a bit here. I can guarantee you that Barbara Donno wasn't recruited by Bruno. This is Skelos' vendetta race. Craig Johnson is his white whale and Skelos and Mondello took it awfully personally when they lost the SD-7 seat. Sure, blame Bruno for some of the others, but the Donno is all Dean's.

That said, I think the rest of Bruce's analysis is spot on and echoes much of what I and others here have been saying for a long time. The Dems aren't going to lose any seats this year, no matter what Skelos says. This really is much like the national playing field in 2006. The GOP is on their heels and the potential exists for significant Dem gains on election day.

But the Dems have to be smart, flexible and opportunistic, much like the DCCC in '06. The one significant advantage that the GOP holds is financial (which is why I'd prefer Skelos to not abandon his current strategy). Dems need to raise money and quick. They are still in better shape than they have been historically, but this is their year and they need the funds to be able to exploit opportunities as they arise. They need to be able to spread the playing field and drain the other side for maximum advantage. The second to none WFP field operation needs to be able to pivot on a dime as well. Money is important, but so is a top notch ground game. Many of the GOP incumbents haven't serious challengers in years, maybe ever. In these races, the WFP team can be even more decisive as they have been training up great folks for quite some time now and the local GOP machines might be a bit rusty.

The long and the short of it is that we simply aren't losing any seats this year. All the battlegrounds are held by the GOP. All the money that Skelos spent on offense is gone and now he's got a number of imperiled incumbents who probably aren't too pleased with him right now. The stage is set for a big year, the year, for Dems and the state Senate. A little discord in the ranks is the cherry on top.

The next 6 weeks are going to be epic. I hope everyone has got some comfy shoes and a phone  free nights and weekends. Can we capitalize on our good fortune?

We're all about to find out.

NY DSCC Responds To Skelos

by: phillip anderson

Thu Sep 25, 2008 at 13:40:55 PM EDT

Statement from Austin Shafran, Spokesman for the Democratic Senate Campaign Committee Re: Senator Skelos's Criticism of Siena Poll

"Senator Skelos's understanding of statistics and polls is equivalent to the Senate Republicans' understanding of arithmetic and budget- both ways New Yorkers lose," said Austin Shafran, spokesperson for the Democratic Senate Campaign Committee.

Ouch.

Skelos Gets Pwned By Siena

by: phillip anderson

Thu Sep 25, 2008 at 13:17:34 PM EDT

"I don't believe the Sienna poll is correct and we have our own internal polling that polls that have been done within all of these different district within the past 20 years that indicate a lot different," Skelos said.

"You know, they use the random digit dialing. Sienna has never done a poll in a senate districts and random digit dialing, for all you know, all the phone calls could've gone into Great Neck."

First, as I have already said, I don't believe that the methodology on these polls is bulletproof. One could conceivably make a reasonable critique of a number of factors. But, that's not what Dean did. He stated as fact that Siena was using "random digit dialing" in an effort to discredit the results, results he's obviously not happy with. It was an odd tack to take, to say the least. The problem is that he's absolutely 100% wrong. (Either he just pulled that one out of his rear end or he's deliberately trying to be misleading. You choose.)

Azi talked to Steven Greenberg at Siena:

I just got off the phone with Siena pollster Steven Greenberg who said Siena "does not use random-digit dialing to conduct it's statewide or senate district polls." He also said steps are taken to ensure "appropriate geographic disbursement" within polling areas. Greenberg said, "We call off voter lists."

So a day after Skelos sent Conway out to spin the Siena polls as much as possible even though the consensus opinion by pretty much the entire statewide media was that the polls show that Dean's strategy of playing offense and telling folks that they would actually pick up seats this year was essentially DOA, he decided to just make stuff up about the pollster to discredit the results.

Did he really think the folks at Siena were just going to let him do that?

Siena Polls: How Seriously Should We Take These Results?

by: robert.harding

Wed Sep 24, 2008 at 18:44:29 PM EDT

But how seriously should we take these polls? Let's use this disclaimer from the poll to get this analysis started:

These SRI surveys were conducted from September 11-17, 2008 by telephone calls to likely registered voters in each State Senate district.  For the 3rd SD, 405 voters were called, with a margin of error of + 4.9 percentage points.  For the 7th SD, 402 voters were called, margin of error + 4.9.  For the 15th SD, 401 voters were called, margin of error + 4.9.  For the 48th SD, 437 voters were called, margin of error + 4.7.  For the 56th SD, 429 voters were called, margin of error + 4.7. For the 61st SD, 450 voters were called, margin of error + 4.6.  Data was statistically adjusted by respondent age - and in the 3rd SD, party - to match likely voters.

Phillip mentioned the high margin of error earlier. I would also like to point out that only 400-plus voters were surveyed in each district. That is a very small sample when you take into consideration how many voters each senate district contains.

There also some questions I had after looking at the crosstabulations for each poll. Take SD-56's crosstabs, for example. Sen. Joe Robach had a favorable rating in Greece/Parma of 71 percent. That is Robach's turf, but 71 percent still seems high to me considering Rick Dollinger had a 56 percent favorable rating on his turf in Brighton. Those numbers tell me that when they conducted this poll and especially when they called voters in Greece, they called more Republicans than Democrats. That Greece/Parma portion of the poll just seems to be inflated to me. This race isn't a double-digit race. We are talking single-digits, if not a dead heat.

The SD-3 crosstabs also boggle my mind. Trunzo is viewed favorably by 54 percent of Democrats? Really? That seems very high to me, especially since this guy is in hiding somewhere. Also, Trunzo is viewed more favorably than Brian Foley in Foley's hometown of Brookhaven. That doesn't sound right to me. And Trunzo is viewed more favorably among people ages 18 to 34? I'll have to take you word for it.

I will echo what Phillip said earlier and that is take these results with a grain of salt. Overall, I think SD-15 and SD-61 are about right. It would make sense that both of those races are tied at the moment. I do think SD-3 is much closer than that and I would even bet Foley is leading. The SD-56 poll also doesn't show how close that race truly is. Again, it depends on your sample. If your sample leans one way or another, that's the way the poll will lean. I'm not accusing Siena of anything (they do great work there) but the sample you have is the sample you work with.

What the Siena polls did tell us today is that we have a fight on our hands. But it also gave the Republicans a nice warning shot across the bow. We are coming for them with everything we have. To think, we could have four races (SD-3, SD-15, SD-56 and SD-61) in play and the Republicans are spending their resources in two races (SD-7 and SD-48) where our incumbent senators are up by double-digits.

November 4 is going to be very, very good for us. But we still need to work hard. There are other races throughout the state we should keep an eye on and work just as hard in. This election is ours for the taking. So let's take it.  

Siena Poll: A Democratic Senate Or Republican Senate? New Yorkers Are Split

by: robert.harding

Tue Sep 16, 2008 at 19:43:34 PM EDT

According to the poll, 44 percent of those surveyed said that it was important to keep the New York State Senate Republican to provide checks and balances while another 44 percent said that it was important to have the Democrats in power because it would end gridlock in Albany. This is the first time since March 2008 that the Democrats have not led in this category.

In reviewing the crosstabs for the poll, 66 percent of Democrats said they waned a Democratic Senate while 79 percent of Republicans said they wanted the Republicans to keep control.

Other notable points from the poll:

- Governor David Paterson's favorable rating stands at 59 percent - tying last month's rating and holding as the best rating he has received to date.

- Paterson is pulling closer to New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg. 40 percent of those surveyed said they would vote for Paterson in 2010 while Bloomberg came in at 45 percent. That is the closest that hypothetical race has been in the whole time Siena has been asking this question (since April). Paterson would beat Rudy "A Noun, A Verb and 9/11" Giuliani 50 percent to 40 percent in the hypothetical match-up.

- Fewer respondents believe New York is heading in the wrong direction, with 37 percent saying that New York is heading in the wrong direction compared to 44 percent last month. 28 percent of respondents did say they "don't know" or have "no opinion."

- Not too many people believe the fiscal condition of New York is in good or excellent shape. Only 14 percent said "good" and one percent said "excellent." More people believe that the fiscal condition of New York is in fair or poor condition, with 41 percent saying that it's in fair condition while another 41 percent said that the fiscal condition is poor.  

Siena Poll: Governor Paterson's Favorable Rating; Respondents Want Democratic Senate

by: robert.harding

Mon Aug 18, 2008 at 13:36:23 PM EDT

- Governor David Paterson's favorable rating came in at 59 percent - the highest it has been in the Siena Poll results since Paterson took office. His favorable rating isn't as high as New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg, who enjoys a 64 percent favorable rating. Attorney General Andrew Cuomo is viewed favorably by 54 percent of New Yorkers.

- People also approve of the job Paterson is doing as governor. Among those surveyed, 45 percent rated Paterson's job performance as "good" while 30 percent rated it as "fair." He also received seven percent who said that he was doing an "excellent" job. Those ratings are also the highest during his time as governor.

- Bloomberg would still beat Paterson head-to-head if voters had their choice, according to the poll. Bloomberg wins 44 percent to 36 percent over Paterson. Paterson would beat Rudy Giuliani though, with Paterson coming in at 48 percent compared to Giuliani's 38 percent.

- A Democratic state senate is still the favorite among respondents in the poll. This time, 47 percent of people said that they would like to see a Democratic state senate compared with 42 percent of people who want a Republican state senate.

- New Yorkers also show that they like Barack Obama with 54 percent of New Yorkers saying they have a favorable view of Obama. Only 34 percent said that they have an "unfavorable" view of Obama.

- When asked if New Yorkers thought the state was heading in the right or wrong direction, 44 percent of the people surveyed said that they believed New York was heading in the wrong direction. Only 34 percent believe that the state is on the right track. This is consistent with polling figures since February where more New Yorkers believe the state is heading in the wrong direction.