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This belongs to you. Take it back...
US Senate 
Tue Nov 02, 2010 at 20:27:09 PM EDT
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Seriously, why wait? We know how these particular races are going to go down. I'll update numbers when I have time.
NY-GOV:
Cuomo -
HorsePorn -
NYSEN - Gillibrand
Gillibrand -
That Dude -
NYSEN - Next Majority Leader
Schumer -
That Other Dude -
% Reporting - 0
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Tue Nov 02, 2010 at 11:12:48 AM EDT
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Ok folks, the election is upon us and it's time for your official election prediction open thread.
The categories are:
NY-Sen: Schumer vs. Townsend percentage
NY-Sen: Gillibrand vs. DioGuardi percentage
NY-GOV Cuomo vs. Paladino percentage
NY-AG: Schneiderman vs. Donovan
NY-Comptroller: DiNapoli vs. Wilson
# of Democratic Seats in the Senate
NY-13: Mike McMahon vs. Michael Grimm percentage
NY-19: John Hall vs. Nan Hayworth percentage
NY-20: Scott Murphy vs. Chris Gibson percentage
NY-24: Michael Arcuri vs. Richard Hanna percentage
SD-11: Tony Avella vs. Frank Padavan percentage
SD-38: David Carlucci vs. C. Scott Vanderhoef
SD-40: Mike Kaplowitz vs. Greg Ball percentage
SD-41: Did Barrett vs. Steve Saland percentage
SD-58: Tim Kennedy vs. Jack Quinn percentage
SD-59: Cynthia Appleton vs. David DiPietro vs. Patrick Gallivan
Here are my predictions:
US Senate: 58 D, 42 R: Call me optimistic but I think that Joe Sestak will pull it out in PA, Scott Adams in AK, Feingold in WI, Reid in NV, and Bennett in Colorado Along with the expected breakdown most everywhere else, including our team holding Illinois and Colorado, although Colorado could go the other way. Unfortunately, Rubio takes Florida and Craaaazy Rand Paul gets elected to the US Senate. I make these predictions based on superior ground operations in the aforementioned Dem holds, and Teabagger candidates turning off independents. I also think largely Democratic cellphone-only voters are underrepresented in most polls, which should tip the results an average of 3-4 points in our direction.
US House: 218 D 217 R: The GOP has a wave like we did in 2006 but not like they did in 1994. It took us 2 wave elections to get this house majority and they can't take it back in 1. Off-year house race wins in special elections have had Democratic ground game pull off wins in races the pundits wrote off.
NY-Sen Class 3: Schumer romps 64-46
NY-Sen Class 1: Gillibrand romps, 58-42
NY-Gov: Cuomo clocks Crazy Carl Palin-dino 61-38 (minor parties get 1%)
NY-AG: Schneiderman wins, 53-47
NY-Comptroller: Dinapoli wins, 52-48
NY-State Senate: Dems lose 1 seat or retain 2 up, bringing the chamber to 31-31 or keeping the status quo, with Lt. Duffy breaking the tie. Losing Foley and Aubertine is offset by 1-2pickups in SD-40, SD-38, and SD-11. This is because Paladino will have negative coattails at the top of the ticket and the cellphone issue. But I don't completely trust Tim Kennedy to vote for a Democratic majority leader.
NY-13: McMahon loses because he alienated his base on the Health Care vote. He loses 52-48
NY-19: John Hall, a good Democrat, rallies his ground operation to pull out a 51-49 win.
NY-20:Scott Murphy pulls it out 50.3-49.7
NY-24: Michael Arcuri, also loses because he voted against HCR, 51-49.
SD-11: Tony Avella loses 55-45
SD-38: Carlucci beats Vanderhoef 52-48
SD-40: Kaplowitz speaks by with the narrowest of margins, perhaps with a recount.
SD-41: Barrett loses, 58-42. That district is just too Republican.
SD-58: Kennedy beats Quinn, 53-47, but possibly votes for a GOP majority leader in the next session.
SD-59: The GOP vote is split and Appleton pulls out a victory, 35-31-33. Although I am not calculating this race into my Senate total because I'm not confident enough on the 3-way race to say this with certainty.
Again, call me optimistic, but I am still predicting we lose about 37 house seats nationally, and several governorships. But the Governor race in NY is going to have down-ballot implications, and the Siena polls in the off-year legislative special elections have been way under-predicting ground game and likely voters. We are a blue state with a landslide Governor victory in the waiting.
What do you think? Go on the record now for bragging rights!
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Tue Nov 02, 2010 at 11:10:01 AM EDT
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Ok folks, the election is upon us and it's time for your official election prediction open thread.
The categories are:
NY-GOV Cuomo vs. Paladino percentage
# of Democratic Seats in the Senate
NY-13: Mike McMahon vs. Michael Grimm percentage
NY-19: John Hall vs. Nan Hayworth percentage
NY-23: Michael Arcuri vs. Richard Hanna percentage
NY-24: Scott Murphy vs. Chris Gibson percentage
SD-11: Tony Avella vs. Frank Padavan percentage
SD-38: David Carlucci vs. C. Scott Vanderhoef
SD-40: Mike Kaplowitz vs. Greg Ball percentage
SD-41: Did Barrett vs. Steve Saland percentage
SD-58: Tim Kennedy vs. Jack Quinn percentage
SD-59: Cynthia Appleton vs. David DiPietro vs. Patrick Gallivan
Here are my predictions:
US Senate: 58 D, 42 R: Call me optimistic but I think that Joe Sestak will pull it out in PA, Scott Adams in AK, Feingold in WI, Reid in NV, and Bennett in Colorado Along with the expected breakdown most everywhere else, including our team holding Illinois and Colorado, although Colorado could go the other way. Unfortunately, Rubio takes Florida and Craaaazy Rand Paul gets elected to the US Senate. I make these predictions based on superior ground operations in the aforementioned Dem holds, and Teabagger candidates turning off independents. I also think largely Democratic cellphone-only voters are underrepresented in most polls, which should tip the results an average of 3-4 points in our direction.
US House: 220 D 218 R: The GOP has a wave like we did in 2006 but not like they did in 1994. It took us 2 wave elections to get this house majority and they can't take it back in 1. Off-year house race wins in special elections have had Democratic ground game pull off wins in races the pundits wrote off.
NY-Sen Class 3: Schumer romps 64-46
NY-Sen Class 1: Gillibrand romps, 58-42
NY-Gov: Cuomo clocks Crazy Carl Palin-dino 61-38 (minor parties get 1%)
NY-State Senate: Dems lose 1 seat or retain 2 up, bringing the chamber to 31-31 or keeping the status quo, with Lt. Duffy breaking the tie. Losing Foley and Aubertine is offset by 1-2pickups in SD-40, SD-38, and SD-11. This is because Paladino will have negative coattails at the top of the ticket and the cellphone issue. But I don't completely trust Tim Kennedy to vote for a Democratic majority leader.
NY-13: McMahon loses because he alienated his base on the Health Care vote. He loses 52-48
NY-19: John Hall, a good Democrat, rallies his ground operation to pull out a 51-49 win.
NY-23: Michael Arcuri, also loses because he voted against HCR, 51-49.
NY-24: Scott Murphy pulls it out 50.3-49.7
SD-11: Tony Avella loses 55-45
SD-38: Carlucci beats Vanderhoef 52-48
SD-40: Kaplowitz speaks by with the narrowest of margins, perhaps with a recount.
SD-41: Barrett loses, 58-42. That district is just too Republican.
SD-58: Kennedy beats Quinn, 53-47, but possibly votes for a GOP majority leader in the next session.
SD-59: The GOP vote is split and Appleton pulls out a victory, 35-31-33. Although I am not calculating this race into my Senate total because I'm not confident enough on the 3-way race to say this with certainty.
Again, call me optimistic, but I am still predicting we lose about 37 house seats nationally , and several governorships. But the Governor race in NY is going to have down-ballot implications, and the Siena polls in the off-year legislative special elections have been way under-predicting ground game and likely voters. We are a blue state with a landslide Governor victory int he waiting.
What do you think? Go on the record now for bragging rights!
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Thu Oct 21, 2010 at 18:54:27 PM EDT
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Just getting set up here at Russell Sage College in Troy, NY for the US Senate debate between US Senator Kirsten Gillibrand and republican challenger Joe DioGuardi.
Debate should start shortly. They are doing sound checks, etc...
Two minute warning just issued...
Thanks to Todd Beeton of the Gillibrand campaign for arranging access for us. Mets102 will be live blogging at DailyKos from a secure remote location.
Update 1
And it's on.
Kirsten Gillibrand opens and goes to the heart of her own agenda and DioGuardi's failures.
DioGuardi runs over his time.
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There's More...
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Fri Oct 08, 2010 at 08:43:00 AM EDT
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The new Q Poll out this morning shows Dems in statewide races surging, especially Senator Gillibrand and AG candidate Schneiderman.
October 8, 2010 - Despite Anger At D.C., Dems Lead In All New York Races, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Women Propel Gillibrand To Double-Digit Lead
Democrats are surging in all New York statewide races as little-known Republican candidates struggle for name recognition, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.
Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand tops the magic 50 percent mark, leading Republican challenger Joseph DioGuardi 55 - 34 percent, compared to a 48 - 42 percent Gillibrand lead in a September 23 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University.
Gillibrand leads 59 - 28 percent among women and 51 - 39 percent among men.
....
New York State likely voters approve 52 - 34 percent of the job Gillibrand is doing and give her a 49 - 24 percent favorability rating.
Gillibrand held just a 6 point lead in the Q Poll released on September 23rd.
Eric Schneiderman was in a dead heat (36%-37%) with Staten Island DA Dan Donovan in that September Poll. Now he's opening up a significant lead.
In the closest statewide race in New York, the race for State Attorney General, New York State likely voters back Democratic State Sen. Eric Schneiderman 43 - 32 percent over Staten Island District Attorney Dan Donovan. But 24 percent of voters are undecided and 39 percent of those who select a candidate say they might change their mind by Election Day.
Neither candidate is well known: 75 percent of voters don't know enough about Schneiderman to form an opinion and 85 percent don't know enough about Donovan.
Neither of the candidates has decent name recognition, but things are definitely moving Schneiderman's way.
In other news from the poll, Chuck Schumer is crushing GOoPer Jay Townsend and Tom DiNapoli has opened up an 18 pt lead on whoever that guy is he's running against.
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Thu Sep 23, 2010 at 08:29:00 AM EDT
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Two new polls out this morning show a much tighter race than I think most folks expected between Kirsten Gillibrand and the guy the GOP nominated to lose to her, Joe DioGuardi.
First up, this SUSA poll shows them in a dead heat with Gillibrand holding a one point 44-43 lead. The poll shows her crushing in NYC and holding her own in WNY, but significantly behind upstate and in the 'burbs.
And here's your head scratcher of the morning. SUSA shows Gillibrand losing badly (28-65) among 18-34 year olds (Idolaters?) but spanking DioGuardi (56-32) with the 65+ crowd.
This morning's Q poll has better news for Gillibrand, though they still show a close race.
In the U.S. Senate race, Democratic Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand tops Republican Joseph DioGuardi 48 - 42 percent.
Sen. Gillibrand leads 86 - 9 percent among Democrats while DioGuardi leads 88 - 8 percent among Republicans. Independent voters split with 42 percent for DioGuardi and 41 percent for Gillibrand.
New York State voters approve 49 - 37 percent of the job Gillibrand is doing and give her a 43 - 32 percent favorability rating. For DioGuardi, 61 percent haven't heard enough about him to form an opinion.
Never a good sign when an incumbent is below 50%, but I'd like to see a third poll this race before I get too concerned.
UPDATE: And speak of the devil, more polls on the way:
Very Different Poll Results in New York
A forthcoming Siena poll in New York finds Andrew Cuomo (D) leading the race for governor by 33 points and Sen. Kristen Gillibrand (D) leading her U.S. Senate race by 24 points -- very different from the latest Quinnipiac and SurveyUSA polls that show much closes races.
Two things to keep in mind: The Siena poll tests registered voters, not likely voters. And in the race for governor, the poll includes Rick Lazio as the Conservative Party candidate, even though he's not yet announced if he'll stay on the ballot.
For comparison, a Marist Poll in New York will be out tomorrow.
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Wed Feb 17, 2010 at 22:03:26 PM EST
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"Southern voters are interested in solutions," said Harold Ford Jr. in 2003. "They can spot a fake." Perhaps this explains Ford's subsequent decision to decamp from the South in search of a more gullible electorate.
--Jonathan Chait, Nowhere Man, The vain search for Harold Ford's principles.
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Tue Jan 26, 2010 at 08:14:00 AM EST
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Hilarious.
A lot of politicians flip-flop on the issues. What really puts Harold Ford at the head of the butt-sniffing chain is that he's not pulling this reversal in Clustermunch, Iowa... He's doing this in New York City, media capital of the world, where they keep all those little bits of tape that have recordings of what you said and did. Hell, there's a whole newspaper page dedicated to everything famous people do. Get a little huffy with the maître d' at Per Se tonight and by this time tomorrow they're picking bits of you out of Cindy Adams' stool!
...
So, for lifting your leg on New Yorkers and telling us it's just egg cream, you sir, are my Alpha Dog of The Week.
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Thu Jan 07, 2010 at 17:39:30 PM EST
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Ann Coulter's "favorite Democrat", the Conservadem Tennessean who is being courted by literally dozens of New Yorkers to become their new US Senator, a man who claims who have lived here in the Empire State for over three years, has never cast a vote here. Ever. Why? He just registered to vote in NY on November 23, 2009.
Harold Ford Jr., the former congressman from Tennessee who is considering a Senate run against Kirsten Gillibrand, has reportedly been living in New York for the last three years.
But he only registered to vote here in November of 2009, according to a spokeswoman for the city Board of Elections.
The spokeswoman, Valerie Vasquez, said Ford registered to vote here on November 23, 2009.
Yeah, that'll fly.
UPDATE: Nice catch by an emailer. In an interesting twist, note that Ford registered to vote in NY on November 23rd and that we first saw this ridiculous idea floated in a trial balloon from the de facto go to publication for messaging from people who suck, the Politico, on November 24th.
Coincidence? I think not.
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Thu Jul 23, 2009 at 21:04:43 PM EDT
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Enough is Enough. Schumer is far from perfect, but at least he seems to know how to twist some arms and isn't fucking stupid enough to think Republicans have good intentions. Reid's gotta go.
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Tue Apr 28, 2009 at 12:20:10 PM EDT
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Wow.
Pennsylvania Sen. Arlen Specter will switch his party affiliation from Republican to Democrat and announced today that he will run in 2010 as a Democrat, according to a statement he released this morning.
Specter's decision would give Democrats a 60 seat filibuster proof majority in the Senate assuming Democrat Al Franken is eventually sworn in as the next Senator from Minnesota. (Former Sen. Norm Coleman is appealing Franken's victory in the state Supreme Court.)
"I have decided to run for re-election in 2010 in the Democratic primary," said Specter in a statement. "I am ready, willing and anxious to take on all comers and have my candidacy for re-election determined in a general election."
He added: "Since my election in 1980, as part of the Reagan Big Tent, the Republican Party has moved far to the right. Last year, more than 200,000 Republicans in Pennsylvania changed their registration to become Democrats. I now find my political philosophy more in line with Democrats than Republicans."
What's huge here is that Specter didn't pull a Jeffords or Lieberman and become an independent, he went whole hog and became a Democrat. I'm hearing he has not changed his position on cloture for the Employee Free Choice Act, but I have a feeling that may change. Regardless, the GOP in the US SEnate now has all the more motivation to drag the Minnesota race out to even more ridiculous lengths to prevent Al Franken becoming that 60th vote.
I had a feeling that something like this may happen as it is probably the only chance Specter has to hold on to that seat, but it's still somewhat of a shock to read it in black and white.
I'm also not terribly thrilled at the fact that Specter is now the odds on favorite for the Dem nomination for this seat next year. If I had to choose between a party switching Specter and an actual Democrat, I'm pretty sure I'd prefer the genuine article.
Regardless, this is huge news. Expect a week of non stop Specter coverage.
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Fri Jan 30, 2009 at 09:27:22 AM EST
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By my calculation, that's better than 2-1.
Most New Yorkers want special elections to fill future U.S. Senate vacancies rather than allowing the governor sole authority to name someone to the powerful position, according to a poll released Thursday.
The Siena College poll found 65 percent of voters want state law changed so voters would decide who gets the job. If the law is changed, it would prevent a repeat of the secretive and widely criticized process that led to Gov. David Paterson's appointment of upstate congresswoman Kirsten Gillibrand to the Senate seat vacated by Hillary Rodham Clinton.
Another 30 percent of the voters polled wanted the state law to remain unchanged.
Count me in the majority on this one.
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Tue Jan 27, 2009 at 12:36:37 PM EST
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Vice President Biden just administered the oath to our new junior Senator, Kirsten Gillibrand. It's official: we again have two senators and, boy do we ever need them.
I wish her well.
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Thu Jan 22, 2009 at 20:12:15 PM EST
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Just talked to someone in Albany that I trust as well as a congressional staffer that apparently got a heads up about an hour ago.
Kirsten Gillibrand will be our new junior senator from New York.
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Thu Jan 22, 2009 at 19:37:15 PM EST
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TV station WPIX is reporting in an "exclusive" that Governor Paterson will choose Rep Kirsten Gillibrand to replace Hillary Clinton in the US Senate.
Confirmed: Kirsten Gillibrand Chosen to Fill Clinton's Senate Seat
PIX11 News has learned Congresswoman Kirsten Gillibrand is the choice of Governor David Paterson to fill the U.S. Senate seat vacated by Hillary Clinton. Two Congressional sources tell PIX News that the Governor will make his announcement in Albany at noon tomorrow. He has invited members of the state's Democratic Congressional delegation to join him.
The sources told reporter Marvin Scott that the Governor has called members of the delegation for their views after Caroline Kennedy withdrew herself from consideration. One of the contenders, longterm Congresswoman Carolyn Maloney canceled a scheduled appearance on "PIX News Closeup" Friday because of a "conflict," which she did not disclose. She too will be in Albany. According to the sources, Gillibrand, now in her second congressional term, was favored by both Senator Churck Schumer and Secretary of State Clinton. Paterson has been under pressure to select a woman.
With most Democratic leaders in Albany coming from the New York City area, one source said this would be an important move for the Governor to have a Senator from upstate. And it is felt Gillibrand would be an asset to Paterson in any bid for election in 2010.
Grain of salt and all. I mean, it's PIX 11, for cryin' out loud, but I think they just may be right.
UPDATE: MSNBC is now reporting that Paterson has asked Gillibrand to meet him in Albany at 11am tomorrow morning, an hour before his noon announcement.
It's Gillibrand.
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Thu Jan 22, 2009 at 18:13:38 PM EST
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I'm listening to the Governor's "Supporter's conference call", happening right this minute and moderated by our very own NYBri, and the Governor just let loose an interesting morsel of information.
Apparently, the Governor had chosen his pick to replace Hillary Clinton on Sunday and decided to hold onto that information until after the inauguration in hopes of not taking any attention away from that event.
At least that's what he said.
Also, I can break this news right now: Our own Brian Keeler will NOT be our new US Senator. That comes straight from the Governor's mouth.
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Thu Jan 22, 2009 at 17:53:29 PM EST
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As usual, Robert is spot on. I just got a press release from the Governor's office detailing his public schedule for tomorrow. So far that schedule has only one event listed:
Friday, January 23
Governor David A. Paterson is in New York City and Albany.
12:00 PM Announces U.S. Senate Appointment
Empire State Plaza Concourse
Meeting Room 6
Albany
OPEN PRESS
In other news, I also just got this statement from the Governor about the Caroline Kennedy mess:
Last night Caroline Kennedy informed the Governor that she was withdrawing her name from consideration for an appointment to the United States Senate for personal reasons. This decision was hers alone.
The Governor had a private conversation with Ms. Kennedy yesterday afternoon. Out of respect for her decision making process, the Governor's Office did not respond to any inquiries in order to allow her time to deliberate. The Governor considers Caroline a friend and knows she will continue to serve New York well inside or outside of government. We wish her well in all her future endeavors.
The Governor is now entering the final phase of his selection process. He has not informed any Senate candidates that they have not been selected, nor has any information gathered during this selection process created a necessity for any candidate to withdraw. Any speculation to the contrary is both inaccurate and inappropriate.
Whatever. The circus is almost over.
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Thu Jan 22, 2009 at 14:34:22 PM EST
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Caroline Kennedy: the gift that keeps on sucking.
Of all the many ways in which Caroline Kennedy's brief and unofficial candidacy for the U.S. Senate was mishandled, one final ungraceful note is striking particularly close to home. Sources close to Senator Edward M. Kennedy tell TIME that his circle - including his immediate family - is furious that his brain cancer is being cited by some in her camp as the reason for her decision to withdraw her name from consideration for the Senate seat being vacated by Hillary Clinton in New York.
"It looks horrible," says one former aide to Ted Kennedy. "It makes him look like he is at death's door." In fact, those close to Kennedy, 76, say that while the Senator is suffering occasional seizures, like the one that sent him to a hospital on Tuesday during the celebratory Capitol lunch for the newly inaugurated President, he is generally doing well. And they add that Kennedy is fully engaged in the effort to pass universal health-care legislation - a cause for which he has fought for decades, and one in which he will play a crucial role as chairman of the Senate Health, Education, Labor and Pensions Committee.
"He is crazy about her. He encouraged her" in her bid for the Senate seat, one close associate says of Ted Kennedy's relationship with his niece. "But using him as an excuse, as though things were on the downward spiral, is not going to be O.K. with him ... This will get in the way of health reform" - by suggesting that a key legislator involved in putting the bill together may be incapacitated.
This is a person who thought she was ready to be a US Senator? From New York? Really?
Oh, and Halperin (I know, I know) adds this tidbit:
TIME's Mark Halperin reports that one knowledgeable Democratic source says there was another, unspecified "personal reason." The source says that it arose 48 hours before Kennedy fully expected to be chosen by Paterson. Without talking to her political advisers, Kennedy called Paterson and told him that she had a personal issue that made her inclined to withdraw her name. He told her to take 24 hours to reconsider. She took that time on her own, according to the source, and ultimately decided to stick with her original decision.
Whatever. I think we dodged a bullet here, folks.
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Thu Jan 22, 2009 at 08:58:08 AM EST
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Big Media Matt states the obvious:
Around seven percent of the nation's population lives in New York State. But the constitution allocates just two percent of the nation's senators to my home state. That's too bad, and it's particularly a problem in policy areas such as transportation where we get a structural bias away from the needs of places like New York. But do you know what's even worse? Right now New York really has only one Senator since Hillary Clinton obviously isn't focusing her energy on this matter, but David Patterson hasn't gotten around to naming a replacement yet. He's doing a disservice to his constituents and to residents of big cities everywhere.
Tick tock, Governor.
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