Earlier today I spoke on the phone with someone who had worked on the Aubertine campaign. They told me about this new voter tracking system that I've been hearing about for weeks now, the system that Bruno's boys thought was going to win them the election that should have never been close. Basically, the GOP assigns their voters in each ED a barcode and equips their poll watchers a blackberry type device with a barcode scanner attached. Every time a code is scanned it's instantly relayed to GOoPer HQ and they know who has voted and who to send the body snatchers for. The staffer I spoke to earlier laughed as he said, "I'd rather have 100 WFP folks working their tails off than a barcode scanner any day." Well, behold the results:
The first thing that should jump out at you is the higher turnout in the northern and central parts of the district, Aubertine's homebase and the areas encompassing much of his AD. Then check out the southern part, Barclay's turf. It appears that many of Barclay's folks did what Danger Democrat figured they might do a few days ago, namely "vote with their fanny."
But, that's only part of the story. The really significant take away here is how the DSCC crew on site (which was run by Nathan Smith) along with the WFP's folks working their tails off simply outhustled Bruno's boys. They turned out their people in the ED's that they needed to.
(Like I've been saying from the beginning, this one would be won with field. Guess what? It was. - promoted by phillip anderson)
Darrel Aubertine won because he turned out his base, that is voters in and around his Assembly District. While the "River District" turned out big for Aubertine, turnout lagged in Oswego County and Will Barclay's Assembly District.
County
2/26 Turnout
2006 Turnout
% of 2006
Aubertine %
Jefferson (118th AD)
12,877
15,624
82%
68%
St. Lawrence
10,586
14,408
73%
61%
Jefferson (rest)
8,481
10,726
78%
58%
Oswego
21,365
33,452
64%
37%
In 2006, Jefferson & St. Lawrence Counties accounted for 55% of the vote in SD-48; yesterday they cast nearly 60% of ballots district-wide.
Today has not gone on without its share of problems at the voting booths. WWNY has the story.
Early on, problems were reported in Adams, Watertown, Henderson, Rodman, the Town of LeRay and Wilna.
The problems were tied to Will Barclay's last minute win in court Tuesday, which secured Barclay a spot on the Independence Party line and forced boards of elections in Jefferson, Oswego and St. Lawrence counties to make last minute adjustments to the voting booth ballots.
It's not clear whether any voting was delayed; in Black River, one voter told us, he was given a choice between a paper ballot and coming back later.
Before 8 am, Jefferson County elections officials said most of the problems were solved, and an elections worker was on his way to Wilna to fix the ballot there.
Voting continues until 9 pm.
This should have been expected, especially considering the last-minute decision that was made with the Independence line.
The problems are said to be fixed so for those of you in the North County, get out to vote. And when you vote, vote for Darrel Aubertine.
Meanwhile, Assemblyman Darrel J. Aubertine, Mr. Barclay's opponent, was across town at Shorty's Diner, asking patrons there to vote. The Democratic candidate said he hadn't gotten enough sleep, but the race was too important to stop now.
"You always feel that you want to make sure you left nothing undone," he said. Mr. Aubertine, D-Cape Vincent, had planned stops at a ham dinner, a bingo game and another of his "One of Us" rallies in St. Lawrence County.
"There is a camp that thought we had no chance. They said it was a Republican seat," he said. "I don't think there's too many people saying that now."
A Republican has represented Jefferson County in the state Senate for at least the last 110 years, a dominance that includes Mr. Barclay's father, H. Douglas, who served from 1965 to 1984.
Mr. Aubertine is no stranger to rewriting history, however. In 2002, he became the first Democratic state assemblyman from Jefferson County elected since Lewis W. Day of Sackets Harbor in 1910.
"This is the first real, competitive race where a Democrat has really challenged the status quo," said Travis Proulx, an aide to Democratic Sen. Liz Kruger, who has been working as part of Aubertine's press team since January. "It gives me hope -- if we can win here, we can win anywhere."
...
But the tide may be turning for Republicans in the 48th, as a higher proportion of the electorate has turned Democratic, a trend seen statewide. A recent Zogby International/ Watertown Daily Times poll found the 48th race in a dead heat, despite a 30,000-voter enrollment advantage for Republicans. More than 22 percent of those polled were undecided.
The uncertainty of the poll findings has inspired optimism in some and despair in others.
...
For Republicans, the competitiveness of the race has caused great concern for staffers and has taken its toll on those running the campaign.
"My boss says that he hasn't seen anything like it," said a staffer for a Republican senator, referring to the low morale in the Barclay campaign. "At first I wasn't that concerned, then as things have gone on, people are worried."
The staffer added that gallows humor about losing the majority is the running joke in the office.
Spitzer has "used every device he can to take me out," Bruno told reporters Monday. "Not going to happen. Not with me personally, and not with our conference. So they can keep having their pipe dreams."
"We started this race as underdogs," said Aubertine spokesman Cort Ruddy. "We have the better candidate, he's run a good campaign and we feel like we're going into tomorrow will a real good chance at this."
Darrel Aubertine responds to the court's decision in the IP flap. From an emailed press release:
"We are pleased that tonight's decision will finally let this election move forward without confusion or delay.
As Darrel said from the beginning, what's most important is that the voters are heard tomorrow and we are happy to honor this decision, as we have been willing to honor all previous decisions of the courts.
It's unfortunate that Will Barclay's need to have his name on the ballot three times is going to cost the taxpayers thousands of dollars in overtime costs, but we're excited about tomorrow's election. We're hearing a lot of energy from the voters about Darrel's work fighting for real job creation and lower taxes, and we strongly encourage every resident of this district to get out there and vote."
Democrat's chances of wresting the state Senate away from GOP boss Joe Bruno this year may hinge on whether a bunch of upstate fishing enthusiasts think they are getting fleeced.
The anglers are being charged $30 for the privilege of wading in a privately controlled stretch of the Salmon River by the family of Will Barclay, the Republican candidate in the 48th District.
And that's one reason Democrats think they have a chance to take the seat away in a special election Tuesday in the Oswego County district, which hugs Lake Ontario and the St. Lawrence Seaway. If they do, they would need to gain just one more in November to take the Senate.
...
"This could be the beginning of the end," a Republican working for Barclay acknowledged. If big donors smell a looming GOP loss of the Senate, "All the money we're used to getting over the years starts to go the other way," the operative said.
"The Republicans have come on lean times in New York in terms of statewide offices and are very worried about the statewide majority," said Lee M. Miringoff, director of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion. "The margins are very slim and can only get slightly slimmer. And looking ahead to November, it starts to become, in what will be a presidential election year and a good Democratic turnout in New York, somewhat worrisome for the Republicans, independent of Spitzer's low standing at the moment."
"The race in the 48th is part of a political earthquake that could shake up control of a body that Republicans have held for more than a generation," said Douglas Muzzio, political science professor at Baruch College in Manhattan.
...
"If the Democrats win this it clearly indicates that the era of Republican hegemony is coming to a close," said Manhattan-based Democratic political consultant Hank Sheinkopf.
Enrolled Democrats outnumber Republicans in the state by a ratio of five to three. Bruno, who represents a stronghold of upstate power, could see an erosion of his support even before the next election, analysts say.
"It scares the Republicans silly and it scares Joe Bruno silly," Muzzio said.
If the Republicans lose the 48th, "he's just one seat away from being the minority leader."
Absentee ballots could make the difference in Tuesday's special election for the state Senate. Election officials in Oswego, Jefferson and St. Lawrence counties said more than 3,800 absentee ballots have been distributed.
That's more than the margin of victory in the 2007 special election to fill a state Senate seat on Long Island. That race, which both parties contested with millions of dollars in advertising, was won by the Democratic Party candidate by 3,637 votes out of 51,627 cast.
Republican activist Rose Marie Walker is spending the second weekend in a row handing out campaign brochures -- more than 300 miles from her Hicksville home -- in a special election for State Senate that could determine whether her party holds on to its last power base in state government.
Walker is among a group of volunteers who traveled six hours by bus from Long Island to canvass for votes in the state's northwest corner. This time of year, frigid temperatures and piles of snow are a certainty here.
But Walker is undeterred, seeing a GOP victory in Tuesday's election as shoring up the dwindling Republican majority in the Senate -- which has championed the interests of Nassau and Suffolk counties over New York City. A poll last week showed the race as a dead heat, which is surprising given the district has never been held by a Democrat.
There are few indicators more ominous for Uncle Joe's doomed state Senate majority than the fact that SEIU/1199 appears to be, shall we say, bailing on them. In yet another sign that more and more folks can see the writing on the proverbial wall, SEIU is giving significant coin to the Working Families Party, the folks who are essentially running field for Darrel Aubertine in the SD-48 special election. They've formally endorsed Will Barclay, but they are funding the Dem ground game. Oh, and the money spigot to the Senate GOP seems to be rather dry as they haven't given to Bruno's gang since last summer.
But recent campaign finance filings raise an intriguing question: Is the politically astute union now quietly hedging its bets?
In recent weeks, 1199 has been shoveling money into the Working Families Party, a labor-backed organization that has been mobilizing support for the Democratic candidate in a crucial State Senate special election in upstate New York on Tuesday. At the same time, the union has not contributed to the central campaign account maintained by Mr. Bruno's Senate Republican operation in about six months.
...
At the same time, 1199 has poured $257,000 into the Working Families Party this year, nearly three times what they gave to the party in all of last year and more than in any year since 2003, according to state campaign finance records. In 2006 and 2007 combined, 1199 gave about $150,000 to the party, records show.
The Working Families Party has taken a leading role on the ground for the Democratic candidate in the race, Assemblyman Darrel J. Aubertine, and in providing money for his campaign.
"This isn't a token, tentative contribution," said Russ Haven, the legislative director of the New York Public Interest Research Group. "It could represent the margin of victory in a short-track winter contest in the north country that will turn on which side will get their voters to the polls."
...
But, despite the denials, another trend is clear: 1199 has taken a noticeably softer tone with the governor. Last year, it led a multimillion-dollar campaign against Mr. Spitzer's budget cuts and exchanged hard-hitting television commercials with the administration, reinforcing its alliance with Mr. Bruno.
This year officials at 1199 have taken a much less aggressive tone - perhaps due in part to a change in leadership after Dennis Rivera, the longtime head of 1199, moved up to another job within the union.
Certainly not having Bruno's pal Rivera running the SEIU show in New York is a contributing factor here, but I think it's much more a case of the union getting on the good side of the Governor and the imminent Democratic Senate majority. They can see what's coming and and there's little that should trouble Uncle Joe and his crew more than this.
Three days out from election day Will Barclay, who has lost twice now in his battle to secure the Independence Party ballot line and is threatening further legal action, says he wants to be in court Monday and is "keeping all options open." They must feel that they really, really need that line.
In other news, Danger Democrat says the state IP committee had an emergency meeting this morning and endorsed Barclay.
Danger Democrat has just learned than the Independence Party state committee met this morning by teleconference. That committee has now endorsed William Barclay as their candidate in SD 48. This is a necessary step for the federal civil rights case that will be made Monday by the IP.
The state leaders of the IP are very close to Joe Bruno and the Senate republicans. Therefore, this is in reality a political device to wedge Barclay's name on the coveted third ballot line. Will keeps lawyering on.
It wasn't supposed to be like this. The GOP was supposed to win this one in a walk. Now they are kicking and screaming to secure a third ballot line three days before the election.
A Five judge appellate panel upheld a lower lower court ruling that stated that the Independence Party line in the 48th SD special election should remain blank, handing Will Barclay his second loss in a row on the matter. So what has young Will the attorney decided to do? He's filing yet another lawsuit just 4 days before the February 26th election. From an emailed press release:
Barclay Loses- Barclay Sues: AGAIN!
Once again Attorney Will Barclay did not get his way, and once again he's going to court.
A five-judge panel from the Appellate Division, Third Department, today upheld a lower court decision that kept the Independence Party line blank in Tuesday's special election.
Following his loss, Barclay has already signified that he intends to appeal again and has also laid the groundwork to bring yet another lawsuit in Federal Court on the same issue that he has now lost twice on. Both cases will likely be heard on Monday.
"With the election only days away, Will Barclay's pursuit of the Independence line has degenerated into a peculiar obsession and a waste of taxpayer money," said Aubertine for State Senate Campaign Manager Cathy Calhoun. "All the while, employees at the Jefferson, Oswego and St. Lawrence County Boards of Elections are preparing for Tuesday's vote knowing that they potentially face a condensed timetable, tens of thousands of dollars in overtime, and countless logistical nightmares to accommodate an 11th hour ruling that has already been ruled on twice."
"Not a single registered voter, Independence party member or otherwise, will be disenfranchised as a result of this court decision, but Will Barclay's actions have the real potential to wreak havoc on the preparations that are needed to have polls open on time on Feb. 26. Every voter is eligible to vote on Tuesday, and both candidates will have their name on the ballot twice. This is a classic example of a frivolous lawsuit that wastes the taxpayers' money and the courts' time."
This decision was the result of an appeal to a lawsuit that Barclay filed (and subsequently lost) after the Jefferson County Independence Party, which is the only duly constituted committee in the 48th Senate District, endorsed Darrel Aubertine for the currently vacant State Senate seat. A judge ruled last week that neither candidate will be on the line. Before this ruling, Darrel Aubertine had pledged not to appeal regardless of the outcome; Barclay has responded by not only appealing, but also filing a new lawsuit.
One can literally smell the desperation on this kid.
I give you a tale of two TV spots, two rather different campaigns. Will Barclay is closing this campaign with yet another smear ad. Darrel Aubertine enters the home stretch with this one, "Jobs for a generation."
I guess the Barclay campaign just can't help themselves. They came out of the gate attacking and they don't seem to know how to do much else. At the third and final debate last week, Darrel Aubertine offered his hand to Barclay on an agreement that both candidates would cease all negative campaign efforts. This was not to be. Barclay seems incapable of actually making the case for himself, of telling people why he is a worthy choice for the 48th SD. Instead he can only bash his opponent while trying to make the case that his opponent is not a worthy choice. What's worse is that the attacks are becoming more and more desperate and bizarre. There was a truly breathless and hysterical press release from the Barclay campaign yesterday titled, "Notorious Drug Legalization Kingpin and Convicted Inside-Trader Funnels Cash to Aubertine". It reads as if it were written by Karl Rove's redneck meth-head nephew at the peak of a week long bender. Seriously, go read the thing. It's a hoot.
And now we have this new TV spot. In it, Barclay attacks Aubertine failing to abstain from votes on wind power while he was selling wind rights on his Cape Vincent farm. It's a stretch and it reeks of desperation. It's also complete and utter BS.
This is all you've got, Will? It's the Thursday before E-Day and all you've got in the tank is a half assed, utterly baseless attack about wind rights at the Aubertine farm? Are you serious, kid?
It's bad enough that the Barclay campaign has chosen to simply ignore that handshake. It's even worse that they continue to just fling poo against the wall looking for something sticky and stinky to stick with no regard for whether any of it is even remotely true.
It's nakedly desperate. It's dishonorable. And I think it's obvious that this style of campaigning isn't working for young Will. Bruno isn't getting his money's worth with the one note clowns running Barclay's show.
It seems there's been a demotion at the firm of Hiscock & Barclay, the firm where Will Barclay and his father are partners. One of the "patactice areas" listed on their site reads:
Lobbying and Election Law Compliance
Hiscock & Barclay provides comprehensive legal advice and counsel to corporations on all matters associated with lobbying and political activities at the state and federal level. We offer expertise in the area of compliance with lobbying and election laws that is unparalleled in New York State.
The Lobbying & Election Law Compliance Practice Area has been engaged by large and small companies to provide lobbying advice and counsel including assisting in complex registration and reporting obligations, seeking clarification from State agencies and commissions regarding new and existing rules; troubleshooting in areas of compliance and civil/criminal exposure; and formulating overall company strategy in implementing a lobbying plan. We assist clients in interpreting and keeping abreast of changes in lobbying and election laws, including the New York State Public Employee Ethics Reform Act of 2007 and the federal Honest Leadership and Open Government Act of 2007. We also represent clients during investigations, civil penalty hearings, and criminal referrals resulting from violations of the pertinent lobbying laws.
This practice area also assists clients in maximizing the benefit of their political contribution efforts while ensuring compliance with all applicable state and federal election laws, rules, and regulations. The practice specializes in political fundraising compliance at the state and federal level. In particular, our areas of expertise include: requirements for corporations and their employees; political action committee ("PAC") activities including formation, strategy, and compliance; political contributions by corporations; and the ethical guidelines and prohibitions governing public officials and government employees.
DD spoke with BOE dem honcho Sean Hennessey at 9:45 this morning and he indicated that our ballots have gone to the printer with no name on the IP line. I expect the Jeff County BOE will have a release shortly.
LATER ADD (11:40)
Another credible source has told DD that the Barclay appeal of the IP line is ongoing and may be ongoing until at least Friday. Hey, we vote Tuesday. How are the ballots going to get changed, the machines programmed and the poll workers properly instructed at the very last minute?
Looks like Daddy couldn't deliver the IP line in JeffCo for young Will.
We finally have polling made public in the SD-48 special election and it confirms what I've been hearing from insiders over the last week or so. The poll shows a small lead for Darrel Aubertine but, within the MoE. Keep in mind that polling this SE is difficult. As I've said before, this one will be won on the ground on E-day. It's all about GOTV. Turnout is likely to be light and the weather could very well be terrible. It's February in the North Country and only three weeks after the New York Primary when many folks may feel they've done their civic duty already.
That said, this poll, commisioned by the Watertown Daily Times, looks great for Aubertine. Bruno's boy Barclay should be running away with this one. He isn't. Not only is Aubertine leading this thing, he's got much better favorables than Barclay. The Barclay campaign's relentless attack strategy appears to have turned many folks off.
Aubertine has slender lead STATISTICAL DEAD HEAT:Race for 48th Senate seat remains too close to call; 22.1% are still undecided
Assemblyman Darrel J. Aubertine appears to have a slim lead in the 48th state Senate District race, but it's still too close to call.
According to a Watertown Daily Times/Zogby International poll of likely voters, Mr. Aubertine leads Assemblyman William A. Barclay by 40.3 percent to 37.6 percent, with 22.1 percent undecided.
The margin of error in the poll is 4.5 percent, making the race a statistical dead heat.
...
Home territory was important. Mr. Aubertine, D-Cape Vincent, had substantial leads in Jefferson and St. Lawrence counties, while Mr. Barclay, R-Pulaski, was well ahead in Oswego County.
Mr. Aubertine also enjoyed a much higher favorability rating, but that might not necessarily mean he will win the majority of undecided voters.
...
Mr. Aubertine could have an easier time attracting undecided voters before the Feb. 26 election based on more favorable view that poll respondents had of him as opposed to Mr. Barclay.
There were 58.7 percent of those polled who said they had a "somewhat favorable" or "very favorable" impression of Mr. Aubertine. Mr. Barclay received the same marks from 47.2 percent of those polled.
Not only is Aubertine leading this thing, he's got much better favorables than Barclay. The Barclay campaign's relentless attack strategy appears to have turned many folks off. Also, their attempt to bang Darrel on the drivers license issue appears to have been met with a pronounced "eh."
Respondents also said that each candidate's premier issue was of little importance to them. Mr. Barclay's campaign created one television ad, one radio spot and one mailer about his opposition to Gov. Eliot L. Spitzer's proposal to offer driver's licenses to illegal immigrants. Mr. Aubertine responded by sending four mailers to constituents clarifying his position on the issue.
Of voters polled, 7.3 percent said that was the most important of five issues listed, while 48.5 percent said it was the least important of the five issues.
Barclay's hope is for a big win in Oswego County, but even a blowout there may not be enough.
Mr. Aubertine was picked by 51.2 percent of likely Jefferson County voters polled. Mr. Barclay was picked by 27.7 percent in the same group.
Mr. Barclay was favored by 50.9 percent of 216 likely Oswego County voters polled. Mr. Aubertine captured 30.3 percent from that group.
Although Oswego County has 46.5 percent of the district's total registered voters, Mr. Aubertine's advantages in Jefferson and St. Lawrence could be too much for Mr. Barclay to overcome, even with a big win in Oswego.
All in all, even with all the caveats I listed above, this is very, very good news. The GOP should be dominating this race. This district is custom made for exactly that. Instead they find themselves trailing a superior candidate. It's pretty obvious that they don't really know how to run from behind.
More on this and about what we can do to bring this one home on the ground this weekend later today.
