Another Q Poll Finds NYers Back Occupy Wall Street, Millionaire's Tax By Wide Margin

by: phillip anderson

Thu Oct 27, 2011 at 09:38:35 AM EDT

Not only do New Yorkers identify with and claim to understand what the Occupy Wall Street protesters are protesting, again across the ideological and geographic spectrums, they overwhelmingly -- by a factor of 4 out of 5 -- support the right of the occupiers to continue to protest.

The numbers don't lie, Messrs Cuomo and Skelos.

Voters Back Wall St. Protesters, Millionaire's Tax, Quinnipiac University New York State Poll Finds

New York State voters agree 58 - 28 percent with the views of the Wall Street protesters, as 60 percent of voters understand the protesters' views "fairly well" or "very well," according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Voters also back the "Millionaire's Tax" more than 2-1, as even Republicans back the measure.

Agreement with the protesters is 74 - 12 percent among Democrats and 57 - 30 percent among independent voters, while Republicans disagree 53 - 32 percent, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll finds.

A total of 63 percent of New York City voters understand the protesters "very well" or "fairly well" and agreement is 66 - 22 percent. Understanding is 58 percent among suburban voters, with agreement at 50 - 36 percent. Understanding is 56 percent among upstate voters with agreement at 54 - 30 percent.

By an overwhelming 82 - 13 percent, New York State voters say it's "OK that they are protesting." Republicans support the right to protest 71 - 22 percent, with strong agreement among all groups in all regions.

Extend the "Millionaire's Tax," New York State voters say 66 - 26 percent, with 57 - 34 percent support among Republicans and stronger support among other political, gender, racial, income, education, age and regional groups. Voters making more than $100,000 per year back the tax 66 - 28 percent.

"Most New Yorkers, even upstaters and suburban voters, say they get the Wall Street protesters' message," Carroll said. "And by 2-1, voters agree with the complaints about bankers and Wall Streeters," said Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

"Agree or not, four out of five voters endorse the protesters' right to protest."

"There's wide approval for the one specific message that's being heard Downtown - support for a continued state 'Millionaire's Tax,'" Carroll added.

How long can Cuomo and Skelos continue to buck public that seems so unified on an issue like the Millionaire's Tax? Better yet, how long before members of Skelos' own conference, members who represent districts where the municipalities are getting squeezed from all sides and where a majority of their constituents favor the Millionaire's Tax, begin to revolt? Is Skelos willing to go the distance defending a terribly unpopular policy? What happens with Cuomo if Skelos and his conference begin to waiver?

Oh, and if I were Cuomo, I'd have my folks shut up about curfews and such. Shutting down the peaceful protesters at #OccupyAlbany, even if you could convince the local cops to do it, is sure fire loser.

You, too, Bloomberg.

Siena Poll Shows NYers Prefer Occupy Wall Street to Tea Party By 2-1 Margin

by: phillip anderson

Tue Oct 18, 2011 at 11:35:28 AM EDT

Roughly twice as many New Yorkers say they'd rather join the Occupy Wall Street movement than the Tea Party according to a new Siena Research Institute poll out today.

49% of New Yorkers chose OWS when given the option between the two. Only 28% picked the Tea Party. And 16% said they would join neither. (Pollster Steve Greenberg tells me one person surprisingly picked both, and if you look closely at the crosstabs you can see it was a moderate Republican from the suburbs between 18-34.)

When you look at the numbers upstate, the divide shrinks. Only 41 percent of upstate voters would pick OWS, and 36% say they'd pick the Tea Party.

The survey also asks a very pointed question about the OWS protesters. Asking voters which statement of two the most agree with - "they represent the 99 percent of people that will no longer tolerate the greed and corruption of the remaining one percent," or "they are mostly out-of-work young people copying the protestors in Cairo, with the potential to cause those kinds of riots here."

By a split of nearly 2 to 1 (58% to 27%), voters picked the former statement, that the OWS protesters represent the "99% of people that will no longer tolerate the greed and corruption of the remaining one percent."

The more we see numbers like these, the more folks like Bloomberg, Cuomo and Skelos are backed into a corner.

This movement is popular and people both identify and sympathize with it. And it's growing.

And we aren't going away.

Two New Polls Show Broad Support In New York For Millionaire's Tax, Occupy Wall Street

by: phillip anderson

Mon Oct 17, 2011 at 14:36:12 PM EDT

Nearly three-quarters of New York voters say they want an income tax surcharge on the state's wealthiest residents, according to a new Siena Poll out today.

New Yorkers support the Millionaire's tax 72%-26% with even 55% of Republicans behind the idea.

I think it would be hard for New Yorkers to be any more clear about where they stand on this issue, no?

And a new Quinnipiac Poll out this afternoon shows that New Yorkers overwhelmingly support both the Occupy Wall Street movement as well as extension of the Millionaire's Tax, again with support across party lines.

October 17, 2011 - New Yorkers Back Wall St. Protesters 3 - 1, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Stay As Long As You Want, Even Republicans Say

By a 67 - 23 percent margin, New York City voters agree with the views of the Wall Street protesters and say 87 - 10 percent that it is "okay that they are protesting," according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

Agreeing with the protesters views are Democrats 81 - 11 percent and independent voters 58 - 30 percent, while Republicans disagree 58 - 35 percent, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll finds. Even Republicans, however, agree 73 - 23 percent with the protesters right to be there.

New York City voters say 72 - 24 percent, including 52 - 41 percent among Republicans, that if the protesters obey the law, they can stay as long as they wish.

....

"It's a free country. Let them keep on protesting as long as they obey the law, New Yorkers say overwhelmingly," said Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "Critics complain that no one can figure out what the protesters are protesting. But seven out of 10 New Yorkers say they understand and most agree with the anti-Wall Street views of the protesters.

....

New York City voters support 61 - 28 percent an extension of the state's so-called 'Millionaire's Tax.' Even Republicans support the extension 55 - 38 percent.

Voters also support 73 - 19 percent, including 48 - 40 percent among Republicans, tougher government regulation of banks and Wall Street firms.

"New Yorkers, even Republicans, back the Wall Street protesters on at least two things they're talking about, a get-tough attitude toward banks and Wall Street and continuation of the state's 'Millionaire's Tax,'" Carroll said.

These numbers are pretty staggering. It definitely puts the heat on people like Governor Cuomo and Dean Skelos and explains much about why Mayor Bloomberg backed down from a confrontation with the Occupy Wall Street protesters in Zuccotti Park last week.

These issues and these protests aren't going away and it would seem that New Yorkers want it that way.

NY-26: Wow. New Poll Shows Hochul Lead

by: phillip anderson

Mon May 09, 2011 at 14:47:04 PM EDT

NY-26: Dem Kathy Hochul in the lead in new DK/SEIU poll

Kathy Hochul (D): 35
Jane Corwin (R): 31
Jack Davis (T): 24
Ian Murphy (G): 2
Undecided: 8
(MoE: ±3.0%)

Wow! Two prior polls-one from Siena College, the other a Dem internal-showed this race extremely close, but this is the first survey to feature Kathy Hochul in the lead. The wild card, once again, is Crazy Jack Davis, the Republican-turned-Democrat-turned-teabagger who is unquestionably hurting Corwin more than Hochul. While 19% of Democrats say they favor Davis, 24% of Republicans do the same. Davis in fact seems to be squeezing Corwin from both sides: He siphons off a large chunk of self-described conservatives (29% to Corwin's 52%), and also runs better among independents (31-20). Hochul, however, does best among that group at 37, helping her nose into the lead.

The biggest question, of course, is whether a third-party rich guy vanity candidate like Davis can hold on to his share of the vote once people actually go to the polls. It seems like more often than not, characters like Davis see their support slide by election day-but that's just two weeks away, so perhaps he can hang on, given the short timeframe. Davis's favorables are less bad than I had expected, an even 43-43. Corwin, meanwhile, is slightly underwater at 39-42, while Hochul is the only one in positive territory at 46-40. If disaffected independents and grumpy teabaggers continue to decide they like Davis more than Corwin, Hochul really could snatch this one away from the GOP.

Which is why Republicans are so desperate to avoid another "Scozzafava" situation. You may recall the New York special election they blew back in 2009 thanks to a split in the right-wing vote between two candidates, Doug Hoffman and Dede Scozzafava. So it's no surprise that Corwin is up on the airwaves attacking Davis for his Democratic past, and I'm sure we'll see more like this in the closing days of the campaign. What's more, Speaker John Boehner is in the district today, trying to shore up what should have been a sure thing.

So I wouldn't be surprised if the NRCC starts spending big here to avoid a serious embarrassment-and I hope the DCCC gets involved, too. If we somehow win, it's an amazing upset; if we lose, well, we were never supposed to have a chance here anyway. No matter what, it's going to be an exciting stretch run.

Speaking of the DCCC, it would appear that their absence has not gone un-noticed by the locals:

DCCC has done little to aid Hochul in race

According to published and private polls, this toxic GOP rhetoric gives the intrepid Hochul better than a good chance to win in a heavily Republican district. Realizing that this is their best chance this year to send a signal across the country, Democrats high (reportedly including Schumer) and low have begged Israel to release some of the $4.7 million in cash that the DCCC is sitting on for Hochul's campaign.

So far, the committee has refused. Speaking not for direct attribution, some whined that they need to "preserve resources" for next year and that Israel would look bad getting into the Hochul race should she lose. But somehow, Israel wrote checks for nearly $16 million for consultants and other DCCC expenses in the first three months of the year.

In addition, I learned that Israel's committee has so far denied independent groups like the Working Families Party indirect help to set up calling centers to help Hochul.Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo's stony refusal to endorse Hochul when asked raises a darker possibility. In the 2012 congressional reapportionment by Albany, there may be a consideration that "two's company, and three's a crowd" Albany must cut one of the three House seats from Western New York, and might find the thorny job of drawing new district lines easier if there were only two Democrats, Reps. Brian Higgins and Louise Slaughter, than if Democrat Hochul were the third incumbent instead of Republican candidate Jane Corwin.

Whatever happens, Israel will look like a sap. If Hochul wins, the committee can claim no credit. If she loses, it will be blamed for moral cowardice. Spokesman Josh Schwerin said the committee has been "coordinating" with Hochul.

Not sure how much heat D-trip could actually bring 2 weeks out, but they could certainly help step Hochul's ground game. That said, I don't have a lot of faith that they will. Perhaps, this latest poll will light a fire under Steve Israel's ass. Then again, maybe not.

What is certainly more clear, is that the NRCC is starting to sweat this seat in a major way.

With a second poll this week confirming that we really have a three-way race in New York's 26th District, Republicans have the most to lose if things don't go Jane Corwin's way in three weeks - and their nervousness is starting to show. Both Corwin and the state GOP have gone after independent Jack Davis, hoping that if they can remind people of his Democratic past, he'll stop pulling votes away from them. But they have two fronts to watch now, with both Democrat Kathy Hochul and Davis hammering Corwin on Medicare.

It's clear now that the Medicare issue will be the defining issue in the race, and so far Corwin has tried to turn the message back to jobs and the deficit. This is an early test for how the Democratic message will play, but the DCCC still isn't in; though with Corwin forced to go on the attack, it could be better if they wait it out and force her hand. On the flip side, the NRCC has already begun phone-banking for Corwin, but especially if they're forced to send resources and go up on air for her, it's an even surer sign that they're worried about how a loss could play into their 2012 plans.

It looks like any help Hochul is going to get is going to have to come from closer to home. I'll have info on volunteer opportunities up later today.

On the web:

Kathy Hochul for Congress
Kathy Hochul on ActBlue
twitter: @KathyHochul

Q Poll: Gillibrand, Schneiderman Surging

by: phillip anderson

Fri Oct 08, 2010 at 08:43:00 AM EDT

October 8, 2010 - Despite Anger At D.C., Dems Lead In All New York Races, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Women Propel Gillibrand To Double-Digit Lead

Democrats are surging in all New York statewide races as little-known Republican candidates struggle for name recognition, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand tops the magic 50 percent mark, leading Republican challenger Joseph DioGuardi 55 - 34 percent, compared to a 48 - 42 percent Gillibrand lead in a September 23 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University.

Gillibrand leads 59 - 28 percent among women and 51 - 39 percent among men.

....

New York State likely voters approve 52 - 34 percent of the job Gillibrand is doing and give her a 49 - 24 percent favorability rating.

Gillibrand held just a 6 point lead in the Q Poll released on September 23rd.

Eric Schneiderman was in a dead heat (36%-37%) with Staten Island DA Dan Donovan in that September Poll. Now he's opening up a significant lead.

In the closest statewide race in New York, the race for State Attorney General, New York State likely voters back Democratic State Sen. Eric Schneiderman 43 - 32 percent over Staten Island District Attorney Dan Donovan. But 24 percent of voters are undecided and 39 percent of those who select a candidate say they might change their mind by Election Day.

Neither candidate is well known: 75 percent of voters don't know enough about Schneiderman to form an opinion and 85 percent don't know enough about Donovan.

Neither of the candidates has decent name recognition, but things are definitely moving Schneiderman's way.

In other news from the poll, Chuck Schumer is crushing GOoPer Jay Townsend and Tom DiNapoli has opened up an 18 pt lead on whoever that guy is he's running against.

Two New Polls Show Gillibrand In Tight Race

by: phillip anderson

Thu Sep 23, 2010 at 08:29:00 AM EDT

First up, this SUSA poll shows them in a dead heat with Gillibrand holding a one point 44-43 lead. The poll shows her crushing in NYC and holding her own in WNY, but significantly behind upstate and in the 'burbs.

And here's your head scratcher of the morning. SUSA shows Gillibrand losing badly (28-65) among 18-34 year olds (Idolaters?) but spanking DioGuardi (56-32) with the 65+ crowd.

This morning's Q poll has better news for Gillibrand, though they still show a close race.

In the U.S. Senate race, Democratic Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand tops Republican Joseph DioGuardi 48 - 42 percent.

Sen. Gillibrand leads 86 - 9 percent among Democrats while DioGuardi leads 88 - 8 percent among Republicans. Independent voters split with 42 percent for DioGuardi and 41 percent for Gillibrand.

New York State voters approve 49 - 37 percent of the job Gillibrand is doing and give her a 43 - 32 percent favorability rating. For DioGuardi, 61 percent haven't heard enough about him to form an opinion.

Never a good sign when an incumbent is below 50%, but I'd like to see a third poll this race before I get too concerned.

UPDATE: And speak of the devil, more polls on the way:

Very Different Poll Results in New York

A forthcoming Siena poll in New York finds Andrew Cuomo (D) leading the race for governor by 33 points and Sen. Kristen Gillibrand (D) leading her U.S. Senate race by 24 points -- very different from the latest Quinnipiac and SurveyUSA polls that show much closes races.

Two things to keep in mind: The Siena poll tests registered voters, not likely voters. And in the race for governor, the poll includes Rick Lazio as the Conservative Party candidate, even though he's not yet announced if he'll stay on the ballot.

For comparison, a Marist Poll in New York will be out tomorrow.

New Q Poll: Paladino Trails Cuomo By Only 6

by: phillip anderson

Wed Sep 22, 2010 at 08:36:00 AM EDT

Among likely voters, the Democrat Cuomo has a paltry 49% to 43% lead over Paladino, the blowhard Buffalo businessman who won a shocking and decisive victory last week in the GOP primary, the Quinnipiac University poll finds.  

Quinnipiac's findings are in stark contrast to a Rasmussen Reports poll released Monday that showed Cuomo with a more robust 54% to 38% lead.    

Cuomo "might be a victim of his own excess," Quinnipiac pollster Maurice Carroll said. "Politicians and polls have depicted him so relentlessly as a sure thing that he might be a victim of the 'throw the bums out' attitude that hits incumbents in this angry year."

Lots to digest and lots to take with a mighty hefty grain of salt in this poll, but maybe it's time to also start hitting Carl on his crazy policy ideas as well. Yeah, he's a racist, a kook, a sexist and probably an anti-Semite - and plenty of people still don't know that. They should definitely be educated to that fact. But, it's also plainly obvious that it's time to start making the case against Carl on substance as well, no matter how you read this poll.

About Those Gallup Polls

by: phillip anderson

Wed Sep 08, 2010 at 08:21:19 AM EDT

Wouldn't you know it, a week later, that massive, unprecedented, world-changing lead Republicans enjoyed is gone. The new Gallup numbers  show the GOP losing five points and Dems gaining five points, leaving the parties tied at 46%. Is there any coherent rationale to explain a 10-point swing in Dems' favor over the last week? Of course not.

Just to be perfectly clear, I don't consider this evidence of a surge in Democratic support, and Dems who rejoice at this poll are making the same mistake Republicans and reporters made last week. The point is Gallup's generic-ballot tracking poll just isn't telling us anything useful, no matter which party likes the results in any given week.

What's more annoying, though, is the media double-standard. After the vast news coverage last week's Gallup numbers received, it's striking to see how little outlets care this week. I'm still looking for the headline that reads "Resurgent Dems close gap against GOP" in a major daily, but can't seem to find it.

Indeed, take Chris Cillizza, for example. Last week, the Gallup generic ballot was the lead story in his "Morning Fix" column, and he devoted more than 500 words to the results. Today, Cillizza's "Morning Fix" column doesn't mention the new Gallup results at all.

When the media culture decides poll results that Republicans like are more newsworthy than results Democrats like, there's a problem.

Indeed. These types of polls are often erratic and noisy, especially in the current environment. The "great news for John McCain" phenomenon is eternal.

I was polled last night

by: Jrathman

Fri Apr 16, 2010 at 10:57:54 AM EDT

Headline Of The Day

by: phillip anderson

Mon Nov 16, 2009 at 10:20:18 AM EST

Siena poll: Cuomo's 60-point lead not within margin of error.

Ouch.

Siena Poll: Gov Continues Slide, Marriage Equality Gaining Steam

by: phillip anderson

Mon Apr 20, 2009 at 10:45:56 AM EDT

The numbers for Paterson are pretty much universally bad, but the one that really sticks out is this one. Only 12 percent of New Yorkers are prepared to vote for Paterson next year. A whopping 71 percent are looking to vote for an unnamed "someone else." The Governor even loses out to his immediate predecessors as New Yorkers would prefer to see Mario Cuomo, George Pataki, or even Eliot Spitzer back in office over Paterson.

"Voters are pining for the days of Mario Cuomo (39 percent) and George Pataki (33 percent) as Governor," Greenberg said. "A plurality of Democrats and independent voters would choose Mario and a majority of Republicans chose George. While 14 percent of all voters want to see Spitzer back in the Capitol, only eight percent would opt to have Paterson as Governor if choosing among the last four to hold that office."

That's gotta hurt.

In other news, a majority of the state now supports Marriage Equality for all New Yorkers, support that is strongest in New York City, but is strong in all regions of the state.

Interesting times, these.

Q-Poll: 53% Of New Yorkers Say Paterson Shouldn't Run

by: phillip anderson

Mon Apr 06, 2009 at 09:51:38 AM EDT

Voters Say 3-1 Paterson Does Not Deserve Election, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Most Say He Should Announce Now He Won't Run

New York State voters disapprove 60 - 28 percent of the job Gov. David Paterson is doing, the lowest approval ever for a New York Governor, and say 63 - 22 percent that he does not deserve to be elected to a full four-year term, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

Gov. Paterson's approval is so low that he should announce now that he won't run for election to a four-year term next year, 53 percent of voters tell the independent Quinnipiac University poll, while 39 percent say he can restore his reputation and should run next year. Even Democrats say 49 - 45 percent that he should drop out of the race now.

New York State Attorney General Andrew Cuomo, with a near-record high 75 - 14 percent approval rating, tops Paterson in a Democratic primary 61 - 18 percent.

In a general election, Republican Rudolph Giuliani, the former New York City mayor, tops Paterson 53 - 32 percent.

Cuomo tops Giuliani 53 - 36 percent in a head-to-head matchup.

Voters disapprove 70 - 19 percent of the way Paterson is handling the New York State budget. Democrats disapprove 63 - 25 percent.

"So long, David, voters tell Gov. Paterson. His job approval tanks at 28 percent. The slide started with the Caroline Kennedy flap and deepened with the humongous state budget passed last week. The budget was an opportunity for Paterson to reverse his slide, but voters disapprove almost 4-1 of the way he handled it," said Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

"Don't wait for 2010, Governor, New Yorkers say. Announce now that you won't run. Voters say almost 3-1 Paterson doesn't deserve a full 4-year term."

Voters aren't the only ones sending Paterson a message either. Liz reports that top Dem donors are telling the Governor privately that he'd better turn his numbers around quick, November at the latest, or he should forget about a 2010 run for a full term.

Top New York Democrats have privately set a deadline of early November for Gov. Paterson to turn his poll numbers around or they'll urge him not to run next year.

"The idea is to let him get through the budget and get through the summer," said a prominent Democratic donor who sees the fall elections as the cutoff for Paterson's improvement.

"Nobody really wants to go to a sitting Democratic governor who's African-American and say, 'Hey. You're a disgrace. Get out.'"

Paterson allies hold out hope he'll be able to mount a timely comeback, but admit his historically low job approval rating - a March Siena poll pegged it at 19% - presents a significant challenge.

"Even if he went up 100%, it wouldn't be much," the donor said. "The goal is to be close to 50, but I think if he could climb over 40%, he can begin to show real momentum."

I'm sure that Rudy Giuliani hopes that the Governor is able to make something of a comeback, at least enough of one to make a credible run and scare off any potential Dem primary challengers. Smelling blood in the water, Giuliani is once again hitting the GOP fundraising circuit and making noises about a run for Governor. (He could use a new gig as his firm, Giuliani Partners, is tanking) Giuliani would be crushed in a general election against Cuomo, but could most likely beat soundly a mortally wounded Paterson. Rudy's only real shot at the Governor's mansion is keeping Paterson on the ballot.

Given this, it shouldn't surprise anyone that a majority of New Yorkers seem to want Paterson to hang it up.

NY-20: Tedisco Push Polling

by: phillip anderson

Fri Mar 27, 2009 at 20:06:46 PM EDT

I just got Robo-polled by Tedisco. Starts out asking if I am a registered voter. Then if I intend to vote in the special. Then if I intend to vote for Tedisco. Then if Murphy. Then it says Murphy has said he'll raise taxes on Seniors to pay for S.S. Do I agree with him? Then it says Murphy will raise taxes on New York tax payers even though he hasn't paid his taxes Do I agree with him? Then it asks if am pro-life or pro-choice. Then it goes to whether I agree with the NRA's strong position on gun ownership. Then it asks if after all this I still intend to vote for Murphy. Then a couple demographic questions regarding gender and age. Closes stating that it was paid for by Jim Tedisco for Congress, 518-373-2702.

hope they actually listen to the responses because I did a lot of swearing about bullshit push-polling in my answers. I left out the parts where it came back and said I had to answer yes or no or repeat.

It seems this reader is not alone. This dKos diarist got the call as well and posted a transcript:

The call came in on my fax line, which is not listed anywhere, so I guess they were doing random calling.

It was a recorded message asking me to take a 45 second query.  As far as I could remember it went like this:

Are you registered to vote?

Are you planning to vote in the March 31 election to fill Kirsten Gillibrand's seat?

Do you support Tedisco?

Do you support Scott Murphy?

Then the lies and misrepresentations started:

Does it bother you that Scott Murphy advocates raising taxes on senior citizens to pay for Social Security and Medicare?

Does it bother you that Scott Murphy is a businessman, but he hasn't paid all the taxes he owes the government?

Does it bother you that Scott Murphy thinks it's OK to let Wall Street excutives keep there bonuses?

(I said no to all the "questions" they asked.)

Then I decided to mess with their heads. Every answer I gave below is a lie.

Do you think of yourself as Pro-life?  Yes

Do you consider yourself a Republican? Yes

Do you agree with the NRA that is important to protect the rights of gun owners?  Yes  (I was close to gagging now)

Then the call asked some 2 demographic questions - age and gender.

At the end they did indicate the call was paid for by the Jim Tedisco campaign.

The "Panic at Tedisco" continues. After finding their lead gone and now trailing, the NRCC drags Osama Bin Laden and 9/11 out of the bag of dirty tricks and now we've got robo push polling.

What does this all mean? It means they're scared witless.

GOTV

NY-20: DCCC Internal Poll Also Shows Murphy Lead

by: phillip anderson

Fri Mar 27, 2009 at 17:32:32 PM EDT

Dems' internal poll shows edge in N.Y. race

Bidding for New York's 20th district seat, Democrat Scott Murphy leads Republican state Assemblyman Jim Tedisco by two percentage points in the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee's internal polling.

The poll, obtained by The Hill from a Democratic source, shows Murphy leading Tedisco 43 percent to 41 percent in the race for Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand's (D-N.Y.) former House seat.

The DCCC's poll was taken earlier this week, before the Siena College poll released Friday that showed Murphy leading Tedisco by four percentage points, 47 percent to 43 percent.

The Siena poll was the first to show Murphy leading Tedisco. Tedisco quickly responded, issuing a statement that said his campaign's polling shows him ahead of Murphy.

"Heading into Election Day, our campaign's internal polling shows us continuing to lead, just as we have for this entire race," Tedisco said. "Today's Siena poll is simply another in a line of polls that show this race within the margin of error. In the end this race is coming down to voter intensity and turnout, and our internal polls show us with strong leads in both areas."

Two things. First, this is where I would usually throw in the caveats about this being a partisan poll and take with a grain of salt and all that. But, this poll would seem to complement the trend expressed in the independent polling so far. In this case, D-trip's poll looks pretty kosher.

Second, what the hell is the Tedisco camp talking about here? They have polling that shows them leading in "intensity" and "turnout"? Really?

That is some nifty poll that can gauge Tuesday's turnout a week or so out.

GOTV

NY-20: New Siena Poll Shows 4 Point Murphy Lead

by: phillip anderson

Fri Mar 27, 2009 at 10:12:52 AM EDT

This morning's poll shows that independents are evenly split, that Murphy is seen as running a more positive campaign and that Tedisco's ads are still turning people off.

Murphy Takes 4-Point Lead Over Tedisco in Final Week
Tedisco Campaign Seen as More Negative; Murphy's More Positive

Loudonville, NY. As the special election in the 20th C.D. enters the final weekend, Democrat Scott Murphy has reversed a four-point deficit and turned it into a four-point lead over Republican Assembly Minority Leader James Tedisco. Murphy leads 47-43 percent, having trailed two weeks ago by a 45-41 percent margin, according to a new Siena (College) Research Institute poll of likely voters. Tedisco's campaign is viewed by voters as more negative by a 44-25 percent margin, while Murphy's campaign is seen as more positive. Regardless of who they are supporting, by a 45-35 percent margin, voters think Tedisco will win the election.

"While the percentage of likely voters supporting Murphy has risen about three points per week for the last four weeks, the percentage supporting Tedisco has dropped three points. In the last four weeks, Murphy turned a 12-point deficit into a four-point lead," said Steven Greenberg, spokesman for the Siena New York Poll.

"Murphy has sealed the deal with Democrats, leading 84-11 percent, while Tedisco has the support of less than two-thirds of Republicans, leading 64-27 percent. Independents are virtually tied, with Tedisco leading 45-44 percent, after trailing with independents by six points two weeks ago and leading by 14 points four weeks ago," Greenberg said. "Tedisco's 16-point lead in Rensselaer and Saratoga Counties two weeks ago is down to six points. Murphy slightly expanded his lead in the northern counties from 25 to 29 points, and turned a seven-point deficit in the southern portion of the district into a two-point lead in two weeks."

"Murphy is now virtually as well known to voters as Tedisco, and Murphy has a slightly better favorable rating, 49-38 percent, than Tedisco's 48-41 percent," Greenberg said. "Senator Kirsten Gillibrand continues to be rated favorably by more than three-quarters of voters, while President Obama is viewed favorably by nearly two-thirds.

"At least nine in ten voters have seen or heard a commercial for both Tedisco and Murphy. By a margin of 30-23 percent, voters say Murphy's ads make them less likely to vote for him. Two weeks ago voters said, 28-20 percent, Murphy's ads made them more likely to support Murphy. Tedisco's commercials fare even worse with voters. Only 14 percent of those who have seen Tedisco's commercials are more likely to support him, while 37 percent say the ads make them less likely to support Tedisco (12-28 percent two weeks ago). About half of voters said both candidates' ads have no effect on who they are supporting," Greenberg said.

Forty-two percent of voters credit Murphy with waging the more positive campaign, compared to 25 percent who say that describes Tedisco. Similarly, by a 44-25 percent margin, voters say Tedisco has been running a more negative campaign than Murphy. Nearly one in five voters says it's both candidates. More than two-thirds of Democrats say Murphy's campaign is more positive and Tedisco's more negative. Republicans see it more even, with 36 percent saying Murphy's been more negative and 29 percent saying Tedisco. Independents say Tedisco's more negative by 42-25 percent margin.

This is great news and all and seems to confirm the movement described in other polls being leaked all week. That said, these low turnout special elections are notoriously difficult to predict. It' going to come down to which campaign gets their people to the polls on Tuesday and to things like the weather. (Weather looks nice, btw)

GOTV.

On the web: Scott Murphy for Congress

NY-20: New Polls Show Toss Up, NRCC Poll Shows Murphy Lead

by: phillip anderson

Wed Mar 25, 2009 at 17:36:12 PM EDT

Three Polls Show NY-20 a Toss Up
In addition to the RNC poll we mentioned earlier that shows Jim Tedisco (R) leading Scott Murphy (D) by three points in the NY-20 special election next week, Political Wire now has confirmation that a NRCC poll actually shows Murphy leading by two points.

Tedisco's own internal polling shows him leading by just one point.

Election Day is next Tuesday, March 31.

G.O.T.V.

On the web: Scott Murphy for Congress.

Siena Poll: Paterson Slips Even Further, Only 19% Job Approval

by: phillip anderson

Mon Mar 23, 2009 at 10:07:19 AM EDT

Paterson's Standing with Voters: from Bad to Worse
2/3 Prefer "Someone Else" in 2010; Gov Crushed by Cuomo, Giuliani

David Paterson is now viewed unfavorably by twice as many New York voters as those who view him favorably, and four times as many voters rate the job he is doing as Governor as only fair or poor compared to those who say he is doing an excellent or good job as Governor, according to a new Siena (College) Research Institute poll of registered voters. If a Democratic primary for Governor were held today, Paterson would lose to Attorney General Andrew Cuomo by nearly four-to-one, and Paterson would be easily beaten in a general election by former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani.

Paterson is viewed favorably by 29 percent of voters and unfavorably by 58 percent, down from last month?s 40-47 percent rating. His job performance rating is 19 percent positive, 78 percent negative down from 28-69 percent last month. Only 14 percent of voters are prepared to elect Paterson as Governor in 2010, compared to 67 percent who prefer "someone else." That?s down from 19-57 percent last month.

"Both in personal popularity and job performance, David Paterson?s standing with voters continues to slide," said Steven Greenberg, Siena New York Poll spokesman. "The speed of his falling numbers is staggering. Two months ago, 60 percent of voters viewed Paterson favorably, and now it?s less than half of that. Similarly, while more than half of voters said the Governor was doing an excellent or good job two months ago, now fewer than one-in-five believes that, with more than three-quarters saying he?s doing only a fair or poor job. More than two-thirds of voters prefer "someone else? for Governor next year."

In a hypothetical 2010 Democratic primary for Governor, Cuomo leads Paterson 67-17 percent, up from last month?s 53-27 percent. In December Paterson led 49-26 percent. In a potential general election matchup, Giuliani beats Paterson 56-33 percent, up from 51-36 percent last month. Paterson led 51-38 percent in December. Cuomo leads Giuliani 51-41 percent, similar to last month?s 51-38 percent.

"The Governor should be grateful he does not have to face the voters anytime soon," Greenberg said. "Against Giuliani, Paterson only leads with African American voters, Democrats and barely with New York City voters. Against Cuomo, Paterson trails big with every demographic group, including African American voters, who give Cuomo a 55-22 percent lead. And by a similar 52-25 percent margin, African American voters prefer „someone else? over Paterson."

Cuomo has a 68-17 percent favorable rating and a 67-26 percent job performance rating, his highest ever. Giuliani has 58-36 percent favorable rating.

Voters continue to believe the state is headed in the wrong direction (52 percent), rather than on the right track (30 percent). More than nine in ten voters say the state?s fiscal condition is poor or fair, including 60 percent who say it?s poor. By a 50-36 percent margin, voters say that the country is headed on the right track.

The poll also found that Senator Kirsten Gillibrand's numbers are also suffering, though more than half of New Yorkers still know too little about her to form an opinion. Senator Gillibrand's approval/disapproval fell from 34/20 last month to 26/20 this month.

All in all, it looks increasingly obvious that Paterson may indeed be dead in the water. Numbers like this can only impact negatively on his fundraising. As I said last month, these stories tend to snow ball and reinforce each other.

I just don't see how he and his crew turn this around.  

NY-20: The Trend, Illustrated

by: phillip anderson

Thu Mar 12, 2009 at 11:15:14 AM EDT

I like the looks of that.

NY-20: New Siena Poll Shows Tedisco Lead Cut To Just 4 Points

by: phillip anderson

Thu Mar 12, 2009 at 10:17:25 AM EDT

Republican candidate Jim Tedisco - 45 (-1)
Democratic candidate Scott Murphy - 41 (+7)
Libertarian candidate Eric Sundwall - 1 (+1)

Wow.

From Siena:

Murphy Cuts Tedisco's Lead From 12 to 4 Points
Tedisco Rated Better on 4 Issues; Murphy on 2, Including Economy
Murphy Now Leads with Independent Voters, After Trailing 2 Weeks Ago

Loudonville, NY. With less than three weeks until the special election in the 20th C.D., Democrat Scott Murphy has cut Republican Assembly Minority Leader James Tedisco's 12-point lead by two-thirds. Tedisco now leads the race 45-41 percent, having led two weeks ago by a 46-34 percent margin, according to a new Siena (College) Research Institute poll of likely voters. While two weeks ago, voters said Tedisco would do a better job than Murphy representing them on six issues, Murphy now leads on two of those issues, including the most important issue for 20th C.D. voters: the economy.

"Scott Murphy has significantly narrowed the gap against Jim Tedisco, trailing by only four points in a district that has a 15-point Republican enrollment edge," said Steven Greenberg, spokesman for the Siena New York Poll. "Only 13 percent of voters remain undecided - down from 20 percent - and nearly 90 percent of voters say they are absolutely or fairly certain they will not change their minds.

"Murphy continues to do a better job of holding the support of Democrats, than Tedisco does with Republicans. The big turnaround from two weeks ago, however, is among independent voters, who previously gave Tedisco a significant 45-31 percent lead, and now favor Murphy by a 43-37 percent margin," Greenberg said. "Tedisco's leads in the Capital District and Hudson Valley fell slightly, while Murphy turned a slim two-point lead in the northern counties of the district into a now dramatic 25-point lead."

"Both candidates have become more known to voters over the last few weeks, as airwaves have been inundated with commercials and mailboxes have been filled with messages from both campaigns," Greenberg said. "Tedisco remains better known, with both higher favorable and unfavorable ratings from the voters.

"Eight in ten voters have seen or heard a commercial for Murphy, while 86 percent have seen or heard a Tedisco ad. By a margin of 28-20 percent, voters say Murphy's ads make them more likely to vote for him, with half of voters saying it has no effect on who they plan to support. Only 12 percent of those who have seen Tedisco's commercials are more likely to support him, while 28 percent say the ads make them less likely to support Tedisco, with 58 percent saying they have had no effect," Greenberg said.

"Voters continue to overwhelmingly think Tedisco will do a better job on homeland security. And by small margins, they also give him the edge on health care, education and bringing federal money into the district. Now, however, more voters think that Murphy will do a better job on successfully ending the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, and on addressing the economy, which is far and away the most important issue voters want their new Member of Congress to address," Greenberg said.

Emphasis mine.

This race is going to be tight and, as always with specials, it'll come down to good, old fashioned GOTV. But, this is a very winnable race. The CW was that this was Tedisco's to lose.

It looks as if he just may lose it after all.

On the web: Scott Murphy for Congress.

NY-20: New Poll Shows Murphy Cuts Lead To 7

by: phillip anderson

Wed Mar 11, 2009 at 10:29:00 AM EDT

Democrat Scott Murphy has slashed into the huge lead once held by Republican Jim Tedisco in the New York special House election scheduled for March 31, according to a new Democratic-sponsored poll.

Tedisco, the state Assembly minority leader, holds a 7-percentage-point lead over Murphy, a 39-year-old venture capitalist, according to the late February survey by the Benenson Strategy Group. The margin was 44 to 37 percent, with Libertarian Eric Sundwall at 4 percent, and 15 percent of voters undecided.The poll was paid for by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee.

The poll was conducted Feb. 24-25, and included interviews with 400 likely voters in the Upstate New York district.

...

But the controversy has allowed Murphy to cut into Tedisco's once seemingly impregnable lead. Early polls had Tedisco up by 20-plus points, while a Siena Research Institute poll two weeks ago still had him holding a 12-point edge.

Republicans dismissed the latest DCCC poll as a natural tightening in a district that Gillibrand carried easily, and where President Barack Obama's approval ratings hover at the 70 percent range.

...

Democrats, though, were pleased with the polling results, and vowed to make significant independent expenditures for the race. They would not provide any specific number on how much the party plans to dump into the effort.

"We're moving forward, being cautiously optimistic," said Brian Wolff, the DCCC's executive director. "The stimulus package and the economy, and our candidate, are striking a tone with voters in the 20th District."

Emphasis mine as I think it's important to not when this poll was taken.

Yeah, it's a partisan poll and all usual caveats apply. That said, it's pretty easy to see how this is happening. Also, it seems that the more folks learn about Scott Murphy, the more they like what they see.

One thing is for sure. Murphy's got the 'mo. If he had cut the lead to 7 weeks ago, where are those numbers today? Given Tedisco's widely panned debate performance, continued bad press and further stumbles, it's hard to imagine that the trend has arrested itself or even reversed.

On the web: Scott Murphy for Congress.