The Governor's public approval freefall continues. This morning's Maris Poll delivers more brutal numbers for the Governor. How bad are they? They are the worst numbers that Marist has ever recorded for a governor in their nearly three decades of polling.
Freefall! Governor Paterson's Approval Rating Plummets 20 Percentage Points...Lands at 26%: New Yorkers are sending a strong message to Governor David Paterson, "Shape Up!" Just 26% of registered voters report the governor is doing either an excellent or good job in office. That's a drop of 20 percentage points since the Marist Poll last asked this question at the end of January. In fact, Governor Paterson's approval rating is the lowest approval rating a New York State governor has received in the Marist Poll's nearly thirty year history of statewide surveys. Has the governor lost favor within his own party? Here's the party breakdown. Among registered Democrats in New York State, 30% think Paterson is doing an above average job while 65% disagree. Across the aisle, Republicans also overwhelmingly disapprove of Paterson's performance. Just 26% of members of New York's GOP approve of the job Paterson is doing as governor while 72% think he is doing a fair or poor job. Only 20% of non-enrolled voters agree that Paterson is doing well in the position. Opinions across the state are consistently low. 24% of upstate voters approve of the job Paterson is doing as governor. 26% of suburban voters say he is doing an above average job, and 30% of New York City voters share this position.
I was speaking with a pretty well connected insider the other day and we both came to roughly the same conclusion about the Governor's slide. While their is still time on the clock and these numbers could conceivably be turned around in that span, I don't have much confidence in this Governor or the folks he's surrounded himself with actually being able to pull that off. I and my friend could be wrong, but we don't currently see any significant reason to believe so.
A few days ago I wrote that I thought that Governor Paterson had about three months to get his act together and "right this ship." I'm beginning to think that I was far too generous. If this morning's new Siena poll is to be believed, Paterson is in deep trouble as his numbers are cratering rapidly.
According to the SRI, his favorable/unfavorable number plunged from 54/30 to 40/47. It was 64/19 three months ago.
Only 28% of New Yorkers approve of his job performance compared to 69% who think he's stinking up the joint. Last month, 51% approved while only 45% disapproved.
Even worse, only 19% of voters are prepared to vote for Paterson next year. 59% prefer an unnamed "someone else." That's a 3 to 1 preference for someone without a name. To put this in perspective, 42% of voters in November preferred Paterson to the 32% who preferred the candidate to be named later.
That, friends, is just brutal.
And it gets worse. In potential 2010 matchups, Paterson is losing ground at a furious clip. He loses a hypothetical Democratic primary against Andrew Cuomo by 2 to 1, 27% to 53%. In November, Siena had these numbers reversed, with Paterson crushing 53% to 25%. That was a scant three months ago. Hell, the Governor lost 20 points against the Attorney General in the last month. Ouch.
As for potential GOP challengers, Paterson enjoys his one bright spot. He waxes poor Rick Lazio 46% to 28%. Great. But, Cuomo beats the hapless Lazio by a whopping 66% to 16%.
Against the "walking. sometimes talking mountain of fail" that is Rudy Giuliani, Paterson loses badly, 51% to 36%. Last month, Paterson beat Rudy 44% to 42%, a -17% swing in thirty days. In December, Paterson beat Rudy 51% to 38%.
In contrast, Cuomo beats Giuliani this month by the exact same margin, 51% to 38%.
To make matter even worse, 53% of New Yorkers think that the state is heading in the wrong direction, the highest ever recorded by Siena, compared to only 31% who think the state is on the "right track." 65% think that New York's economy is "poor." Only 37% believe their elected leaders are capable of solving the crisis compared to 61% who have no confidence at all that the budget crisis will be solved.
All these numbers add up to big, serious, profound trouble for Governor Paterson. If he really wants to be elected to a full term next year, he's got to turn this thing around and do it awfully damn quick. Numbers like these are will begin to severely damage his fundraising, a task that was already more difficult thanks to the economy's nosedive. That leads to more stories about how he's not viable in 2010 and to more headlines about a rudderless administration and to...more polls showing how he's not viable in 2010. It's a vicious cycle that can very easily begin to snowball and reinforce itself.
Paterson and his crew had better get it together and stop this freefall if they are to have any chance at all in 2010. Otherwise, they will be doing not much more than wasting everyone's time and money.
A new Q poll out this morning shows further erosion in support for Governor Paterson and that most New Yorkers still don't really know who Senator Gillibrand is. Paterson seems to still be suffering from the Caroline Kennedy fiasco and that he's in genuine trouble should Attorney General Andrew Cuomo decide to challenge him in a primary next year. The Governor's approve/disapprove numbers in the job approval department are still in positive territory, but just barely and are the lowest he's scored since he took over the job almost a year ago.
In hypothetical 2010 matchups, Paterson ties Rudy Giuliani and gets crushed by Cuomo. Gillibrand would slightly trail Rep Carolyn McCarthy though most New Yorkers seem not to know much about either of them. Oh, and Gillibrand would beat the pants off wingnut Rep Peter King in a general.
The Caroline Kennedy caper continues to bedevil New York Gov. David Paterson as he trails Attorney General Andrew Cuomo 55 - 23 in an early look at a 2010 Democratic primary for Governor, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.
In a general election matchup, Gov. Paterson ties former New York City Mayor Rudolph Giuliani, a possible Republican challenger, 43 - 43 percent, with 10 percent undecided, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll finds. Paterson leads 70 - 18 percent among Democrats, while Giuliani leads 80 - 9 percent among Republicans and 47 - 38 percent among independent voters. New York City voters go with Paterson 52 - 35 percent, while Giuliani leads 48 - 36 percent among suburban voters and 47 - 38 percent upstate.
Attorney General Cuomo leads Giuliani 51 - 37 percent in the Governor's race, ahead 81 - 11 percent among Democrats and 45 - 40 percent among independent voters. Giuliani leads 76 - 11 percent among Republicans. Cuomo is up 61 - 30 percent in New York City and 48 - 41 percent in the suburbs and gets 44 percent of upstate voters to Giuliani's 42 percent.
New York State voters approve 45 - 41 percent of the job Paterson is doing, his lowest approval rating in 11 months as Governor and down from 50 - 30 percent January 26.
Voters disapprove 52 - 35 percent of the way Paterson handled the appointment of a U.S. Senator to fill Hillary Clinton's seat. Disapproval is similar across the political spectrum.
"The Caroline Kennedy mix-up still haunts Gov. David Paterson," said Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "In numbers which could tempt Attorney General Andrew Cuomo to take another shot at Governor, Paterson trails Cuomo 2 - 1 among Democratic voters and scratches out a tie with Mayor Rudolph Giuliani in the general election."
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While voters are not happy with the process, they do approve 45 - 33 percent, with 22 percent undecided, of Paterson's selection of Kirsten Gillibrand as U.S. Senator. Even Republicans approve 42 - 33 percent.
Sen. Gillibrand gets a 28 - 10 percent job approval rating, with 62 percent undecided. Similarly, she gets a 24 - 9 percent favorability with 65 percent who haven't heard enough.
A possible challenger in the 2010 Democratic primary for the U.S. Senate, U.S. Rep. Carolyn McCarthy, has a 24 - 9 percent favorability with 66 percent who haven't heard enough.
And U.S. Rep. Peter King, a possible 2010 Republican challenger for the Senate seat, has a 21 - 10 percent favorability, with 68 percent who don't know enough to decide.
Rep. McCarthy tops Sen. Gillibrand in a Democratic primary 34 - 24 percent, with 39 percent undecided.
In a general election matchup with Rep. King, Gillibrand is up 42 - 26 percent, with 28 percent undecided.
2010 is certainly shaping up to be a rather interesting year.
It doesn't really matter which poll you consult - Zogby, Pew, Gallup - they all show the same thing: Incoming president Barack Obama is hitting new highs in public support, while outgoing President George W. Bush is hitting new lows.
To be fair, it's like comparing apples and oranges: Bush's record includes 9/11, Katrina, two wars, a controversial re-election, and an economic meltdown of historic proportions. Meanwhile, Obama's record includes a low-key decade as a state senator and U.S. senator.
But there's no denying the numbers are impressive. Even Obama's incoming numbers are handing Bush's a thrashing - a pre-inaugural poll by Pew Research Center finds that 79 percent of Americans have a "favorable impression" of the incoming leader. In 2001, George W. Bush had to make do with 60 percent. Pew reports that Obama even has more optimists on his side.
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Bush isn't facing downhill numbers alone. Trust in his party is waning as well. A Washington Post-ABC News poll reports that "just 23 percent said they trust Republicans more than Democrats to handle the main problems facing the nation."
It's not a great mystery as to why folks seem to have such a poor opinion of our departing President. He pretty much sucked. I mean, even SNL knew he was going to suck months before he actually took the oath:
It's going to be an interesting week in Albany as the Governor has called the legislature back to address an ever increasing multi-billion dollar gap in the state's finances. The one thing that all parties seem to agree on is that they don't agree on anything. The lame duck nature of the leadership in the Senate complicates things even further. Things could get pretty hairy before the week is over.
Now consider this new poll from Siena. The poll shows that New Yorkers think the budget gap should be closed with cuts in spending as opposed to tax increases. When asked where the budget ax should fall - on education or healthcare, the biggest expenditures in the budget - a plurality said "somewhere else."
Three-quarters of voters think the state budget gap should be closed by cutting spending, while 10 percent support increasing taxes and nine percent favor borrowing money. At least two-thirds of voters from every region and party support spending cuts. When given a choice of five areas for the state to cut, 23 percent chose aid to local government, 18 percent transportation/infrastructure, seven percent education, six percent health care, and the winner was 44 percent for "something else." When matched head-to-head regarding what to cut, voters are evenly divided - 39 percent for each - between cutting health care and education.
"Voters are loud and clear about opposing tax increases to close the state budget gap. Read our lips, 'no new taxes,' is the message to the Governor and Legislature," said Steven Greenberg, spokesman for the Siena New York Poll. "On the other hand, when asked whether Governor David Paterson would be able to hold to his current position of opposing tax increases only 19 percent of voters thought he would, compared to 77 percent who believe he will wind up supporting a tax increase.
"When it comes to the issue of what to cut, voters don't have a lot of good advice for the Governor and lawmakers. It's clear, however, that they don't want cuts in the two largest areas of the state budget - education and health care," Greenberg said. "And when it comes to which tax to raise, nearly two-thirds of voters say raise business taxes, one-quarter say sales tax, and only eight percent say raise the income tax."
The Governor is in a tight spot. Dean Skelos has no incentive to play ball and is steadfast against any cuts to education spending. Shelly Silver is essentially untouchable and has no real reason to produce a plan of his own. The public wants him to cut billions of dollars of spending on "something else" instead of raising revenues and has what appears to be a rather limited understanding of what the budget actually is and where the money is.
There seems to be little oxygen in the room for what seems to me the fairest way to bridge this gap, namely cuts and revenue increases on those who can afford it most. Balancing the state's budget solely on the backs of working families and services like public education they consume is neither fair nor will it be sufficient to solve the problem. Slashing aid to local governments will cost taxpayers far more than the savings in Albany as those local governments will raise property taxes and cut services. Cutting billions of dollars of "something else" isn't a plan either. The burden of closing this gaping hole in our state's budget should be spread amongst all New Yorkers.
Unfortunately, it doesn't seem that any of the current "three men in a room" sufficiently get that. Neither does a large part of the public.
It was about this time four years ago that the first exit polls began to leak and rumble around the interwebs. The first exit polls out of Ohio looked so good that I decided to head down to the wine shop on Bedford Avenue where I bought two very expensive bottles of very good French Champagne.
They sat in my fridge until New Years Eve.
Any minute now, the first exit polls will start to show up on blogs and in your inbox. IGNORE THEM.
"Today's poll speaks for itself. Voters here recognize that Democrat Bill Stachowski has a real record of saving jobs and fighting Republican outsourcing schemes. The more they learn about his Republican opponent's plan to maintain the status quo in Albany, the less they like."
Joe Mesi's campaign also responded about today's findings that indicated Mesi is running a tight race against Republican Mike Ranzenhofer.
"With the polls showing a neck-and-neck race, Joe Mesi's campaign is heading into the final 48 hours with a wave of momentum from endorsements by Senator Hillary Clinton and Governor David Paterson. Joe Mesi will be fighting to the finish - talking to families across Western New York - with a marathon 'Countdown to Change' campaign blitz through each of the 17 towns of the Senate District in 17 hours on election eve."
Stachowski has had quite a turnaround, but there is still a lot of work to be done prior to Tuesday. Mesi is running neck-and-neck with Ranzenhofer and will be working hard over the next two days to earn a victory on Tuesday.
The new Siena Polls are hot off the presses an things look pretty good for Dems across the state. In fact, if these numbers are correct and the election wre held today, the GOP would lose it's Senate majority.
The biggest numbers to pop out is the lead Brian Foley has over Caesar Trunzo (R-FL) and the huge comeback by incumbent Dem Bill Stachowski. Foley leads Trunzo by a whopping 22 points and Stachowski has turned a 13 point deficit into a 4 point lead.
A rundown:
3rd SD - Suffolk County - Caesar Trunzo (R, incumbent) vs. Brian Foley (D)
Foley has a 56-34 percent lead over Trunzo. Trunzo led 46-40 percent in the previous Siena New York Poll. While Foley has picked up a little more support among Democrats, he has cut Trunzo's lead among Republican voters to 53-39 percent, down dramatically from 71-16 percent. Additionally, Foley has opened up a 63-27 percent lead among independent voters, up from 43-40 percent previously.
Foley has expanded a two-point lead in Brookhaven to a 12-point lead, and reversed 12-point deficit in Islip and turned it into 30-point lead. Where Trunzo had a nine-point lead among voters 55-years of age and older, Foley now leads with those voters 52-40 percent. Foley leads by 13 points with men and 30 points with women. The only demographic group in which Trunzo leads is among Republicans.
If Foley leads by even 10 points in Trunzo's Islip backyard, this thing is over. The poll shows a 30 point lead. And before the GOoPs start screaming about the poll sample, look at the Obama/McCain numbers. They are essentially dead even. It's not like they are only polling Dems.
6th SD - Nassau County - Kemp Hannon (R, incumbent) vs. Kristen McElroy (D)
Hannon has a commanding 56-30 percent lead, in a district that is virtually evenly enrolled between Republicans and Democrats. Hannon has the support of 80 percent of Republicans and picks up the support of nearly one-third of Democrats. McElroy only wins among Democrats 55-32 percent, while only attracting support from 10 percent of Republicans. Hannon leads among independent voters 56-21 percent.
McElroy leads among young voters and those in the Council District 1 section of the Hempstead portion of the Senate district. However, Hannon has much bigger leads in the remainder of the district and has better than 60 percent among voters who are at least 35-years old.
Ouch. Got some work to do here.
15th SD - Queens County - Serph Maltese (R, incumbent) vs. Joseph Addabbo, Jr. (D)
Addabbo currently has a slim 45-43 percent lead over Maltese. In the September Siena poll, the two were tied at 42 percent, in this district that has an overwhelmingly Democratic enrollment edge. Maltese has the support of more than three-quarters of Republicans and one-quarter of Democrats. Addabbo leads 61-27 percent among Democrats and picks up the support of 20 percent of Republicans. Maltese leads among independent voters 51-31 percent. Maltese leads by four points with men, while Addabbo has a seven-point lead with women. Addabbo leads in the southern part of the district and Maltese leads in the north.
Maltese is viewed favorably by 45 percent of voters and unfavorably by 33 percent of voters, down from a 48-16 percent favorable rating previously. Addabbo's favorable rating is 42-30 percent, and was previously 38-20 percent.
Obama leads McCain in this district 57-32 percent, up from 49-31 percent.
48th SD - Oswego/Jefferson/St. Lawrence - Darrel Aubertine (D, incumbent) vs. David Renzi (R)
Aubertine, who had a 51-31 percent lead over Renzi in the last poll, has seen that lead drop to 49-38 percent. Aubertine has the support of nearly three-quarters of Democrats and more than one-third of Republicans in this district with a heavy Republican enrollment edge. Renzi leads 57-35 percent with Republicans, up from 41-37 percent previously, and only gets 13 percent of Democrats. Aubertine is winning among independent voters 49-34 percent, up from 41-37 percent previously. While Renzi has erased a 20-point Aubertine lead in Oswego County, and now leads there 44-37 percent, Aubertine has widened his leads in Jefferson (25 points, up from 16) and St. Lawrence (30 points, up from 27) Counties.
Aubertine is viewed favorably by 54 percent of voters and unfavorably by 31 percent of voters, down from 58-21 percent previously. Renzi has a 40-35 percent favorability rating; previously it was 34-15 percent.
Aubertine is going to fine.
58th SD - Erie County - William Stachowski (D, incumbent) vs. Dennis Delano (R)
Stachowski now has a 47-43 percent lead over Delano, after trailing 49-36 percent in the previous Siena poll in this district where Democrats have a better than two-to-one enrollment edge. Stachowski has increased his lead among Democrats to 62-30 percent (up from 51-34 percent). Delano maintains a 63-25 percent lead among Republicans (virtually unchanged from 64-23 percent) and has seen his lead among independent voters fall to 54-36 percent, down from 67-19 percent.
Whereas Delano led in all three sections of the district previously, Stachowski now leads 47-37 percent in Buffalo/Lackawanna, 48-45 percent in Cheektowaga, and 47-44 percent in the southern suburbs. Stachowski has a 12-point lead with men, while Delano has a two-point lead with women. Delano has a significant lead with Protestants. Stachowski leads with Catholics, and has a big lead among younger voters.
Stachowski has a 50-31 percent favorable rating. It had been 39-14 percent. Delano's favorable rating, 53-33 percent, is down from 63-15 percent. Delano continues to have a positive favorable rating with voters of every party, while Stachowski has increased his favorability among Democrats but lost ground with independent voters and saw his favorability among Republicans drop from 35-12 percent to 29-50 percent.
More than half of voters would like to see the Senate controlled by Democrats, and Obama has opened 55-37 percent lead over McCain, up from 45-41 percent previously.
"Senator Stachowski has turned this race around. In four weeks he has erased a 13-point deficit and turned it into a tight four-point lead. Where Delano previously had a much better favorable rating with voters, the two are now viewed by voters in virtually the same light. We will have to wait until Election Day to see if Stachowski continues his momentum to win re-election, or if Delano can turn this race back around again and defeat a 27-year incumbent in this overwhelmingly Democratic district," Greenberg said.
Stach is back. That's what a comeback looks like. I guess the more folks learn about Delano, the less they like what they see. Also, this one of those races that an Obama wave could seriously affect. If that wave reaches Buffalo, Stachowski could end up blowing Delano right out of the water.
61st SD - Erie and Genesee Counties - Michael Ranzenhofer (R) vs. Joseph Mesi (D)
Ranzenhofer has a 47-42 percent lead over Mesi, who had a slimmer 40-38 percent lead in the previous Siena poll, in this district where Republicans have a very small enrollment edge over Democrats. Ranzenhofer leads among Republicans 69-25 percent, up from 59-21 percent. Mesi leads among Democrats 62-29 percent, closer than the previous 63-19 percent. Mesi leads among independent voters 42-37 percent, although Ranzenhofer closed the gap from 43-28 percent. Mesi leads in Tonawanda by seven points (down from 10). Ranzenhofer leads in the Clarence/Newstead/Genesee County portions of the district by 15 points (up from two points), and in Amherst by three points (up a tick from two points).
Ranzenhofer has a 47-26 percent favorable rating, compared to 35-12 percent previously. Mesi's favorable rating is 46-37 percent, compared to 45-18 percent in the previous Siena poll.
While the race has shifted seven points from Mesi to Ranzenhofer, a reverse trend occurred on the question of who voters support to control the Senate. Previously, voters supported Republican control by a 44-38 percent margin, while now a slim plurality, 43-41 percent, support Democratic control. The presidential race also flipped, with McCain's 45-40 percent lead now becoming a 51-42 percent lead for Obama.
"This district is close in enrollment between Republicans and Democrats. The voters are close in their view on which party should control the Senate. The voters have switched their support from McCain to Obama over the last few weeks. And a small Mesi lead has turned into a slightly wider Ranzenhofer lead. Which party's voters turn out in larger numbers on Tuesday may well determine the outcome of this race. Either way, it figures to be a late night as the votes get counted in this race," Greenberg said.
This one may very well come down to Obama's GOTV operation as well. If his voters show in force, I think Mesi wins this thing. Mesi likes to remind folks that he is undefeated. If the Obama wave does indeed materialize in the manner that it appears to be, he'll be able to call himself undefeated still. Give him a hand.
The new Siena Polls on four state Senate Races are out this morning and it is a decidedly mixed bag.
7th SD - Nassau County - Craig Johnson (D, incumbent) vs. Barbara Donno (R)
Johnson has a 50-35 percent lead over Donno, down from a 49-25 percent lead in the previous Siena New York Poll. Johnson has the support of more than three-quarters of Democrats, while Donno has the support of more than two-thirds of Republicans. Johnson has a nearly two-to-one lead among independent voters, 50-28 percent, up from 36-24 percent in the last poll. Donno's overall gain in the poll comes largely from Republican voters, where she went from leading 47-28 percent, to now leading 68-19 percent.
Johnson is viewed favorably by 40 percent and unfavorably by 28 percent of voters (36-17 percent last poll). Donno currently has a 29-23 percent favorable rating (16-9 percent last poll).
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37th SD - Westchester County - Suzi Oppenheimer (D, incumbent) vs. Liz Feld (R)
Oppenheimer has maintained a large 64-29 percent lead over Feld, down slightly from 61-24 percent in the previous poll. While Oppenheimer has support from 88 percent of Democrats, Feld is only winning among Republicans 64-30 percent. Oppenheimer has a better than two-to-one, 59-28 percent, lead among independent voters. Oppenheimer leads in every region and with virtually every demographic group.
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56th SD - Monroe County - Joseph Robach (R, incumbent) vs. Richard Dollinger (D)
Robach leads Dollinger 52-39 percent, edging up slightly from 49-38 percent in the last poll. Robach has the support of 84 percent of Republicans and 34 percent of Democrats in this district with a large Democratic enrollment edge. Dollinger has the support of 55 percent of Democrats and 13 percent of Republicans. Robach leads among independent voters 56-37 percent, up from 46-34 percent. Dollinger leads by 11 points in Rochester and eight points in Brighton, however, Robach leads 67-27 percent in Greece and Parma.
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Obama has a commanding 61-32 percent lead over McCain.(!)
Volker has a 50-39 percent lead over Konst, down six points from the last poll, when he led 50-33 percent. Volker has the support of three-quarters of Republicans, while Konst wins among Democrats 60-28 percent. Konst now leads among independent voters 47-40 percent, after trailing with these voters 43-28 percent previously. Volker has a small three - point lead in the Erie County portion of the district and a large 23-point lead in the Livingston/Ontario/Wyoming Counties portion of the district.
Much, much work to do. If you are in or near the 56th or the 59th, now is the time to get off the bench. I still think that the Rocbach/Dollinger race is going to turn largely on the Obama GOTV effort. Obama leads McCain 2-1 in that district and the urban parts of Rochester are going to be key. If you are anywhere near there, now is the time to get involved. This is a winnable race, folks.
Because the FSM just doesn't love me this much:
McCain Support Continues Downward Spiral Obama Leads by 19 Among Those Who Have Already Voted
Barack Obama leads John McCain by a 52% to 36% margin in Pew's latest nationwide survey of 1,325 registered voters. This is the fourth consecutive survey that has found support for the Republican candidate edging down. In contrast, since early October weekly Pew surveys have shown about the same number of respondents saying they back Obama. When the sample is narrowed to those most likely to vote, Obama leads by 53% to 38%.
A breakdown of voting intentions by demographic groups shows that since mid- September, McCain's support has declined significantly across most voting blocs. Currently, McCain holds a statistically significant advantage only among white evangelical Protestants (aside from Republicans). In addition, Obama runs nearly even with McCain in the so-called red states, all of which George W. Bush won in 2004.
Just as ominous for the Republican candidate, Obama holds a 53% to 34% lead among the sizable minority of voters (15%) who say they have already voted. Among those who plan to vote early but have not yet voted (16% of voters), 56% support Obama, while 37% support McCain.
I'd love to believe this, but it just seems pretty far out of whack with the other national polls.
Of course, I'd also love to be dead wrong about it too.
Daily Kos has just published their Research 2000 poll of NY-29 and the results track very well with both the polls that were released last week. The poll finds challenger Eric Massa with a 7 point lead at 49-42.
Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 10/7-8. Likely voters. MoE 5% (No trend lines)
Kuhl (R) 42
Massa (D) 49
O2B candidate Eric Massa is obviously running a fantastic race -- winning independents by double digits, winning over 12 percent of Republicans while losing only 5 percent of Democrats, and sitting just a hair-width away from taking a seat he lost by just three percentage points in 2006. In fact, Eric Massa has outraised wife abuser Randy "Shotgun" Kuhl by a narrow margin, something you don't see every day. Incumbents usually vastly outraise challengers, but Massa ran a great race in 2006, and has learned the right lessons from his first bid last cycle to kick it up even higher.
Two weeks ago the Siena Research Institute released a poll that showed a mere 5 point lead for Obama in New York. This led many otherwise smart folks to run around with their hair on fire thinking that John McCain actually had a shot at winning the Empire State. There were emergency meetings. There were fevered emails and phone calls. Some people just freaked out. I said at the time that everyone should just take a deep breath. The chances that Obama would win New York by less than a dozen points were roughly equal to him winning Utah by he same margin.
If the poll, an obvious outlier, had any value, it was that it would once again give the NY GOP a glimmer of false hope. It would encourage them to publicly state again that they believed that John McCain and Sarah the Wonder Dolt were going to save their Senate majority. (this time last year it was Rudy on their white horse) Give them some hope and let them game plan around a McCain surge, I said.
Well, this morning comes news that the new Siena Poll shows 22 point lead for Barack Obama. It also shows that Sarah Palin's numbers have dropped like a stone, a phenomena seen in polling across the country in the last few weeks.
What this means for Skelos and Mondello is that the calvary ain't coming. The top of the GOP ticket isn't going to save them or their endangered incumbents.
A Global Strategies Group Poll commissioned for the DCCC shows substantial leads for Dem challenger Dan Maffei. This is the first polling I've seen on this race and I like what I see. Check these numbers out:
Dan Maffei (D): 41%
Peter Cappuccilli (R): 29%
Undecided: 30%
Dan Maffei (D): 41%
Randy Wolken (R): 25%
Undecided: 34%
Very, very good news.
The MoE is 6.9%, but still, Maffei definitely appears to be the frontrunner to replace the retiring Jim Walsh.
Siena College has a new poll out this morning that shows that New Yorkers very much like our new governor and that his admission of extramarital affairs over the last week haven't affected that opinion much at all. A somewhat troubling number shows that a slight plurality wants to see the state Senate remain in Bruno's hands. The poll also echoes this morning's Q Poll which shows overwhelming support, once again including a majority of Republicans, for a temporary 1 percent income tax increase on those making more than $1 million annually.
Voters View Gov. Paterson Favorably & with Optimism Spitzer Tanks with Voters; His Job Performance Matches Legislature's. Slight Support for Republicans Retaining Control of State Senate.
Governor David Paterson is viewed favorably by 58 percent of voters and unfavorably by 10 percent, according to a new Siena (College) Research Institute poll of registered voters released today. The poll shows that 60 percent of voters are very or somewhat confident that the Governor and state leaders will solve the problems New Yorkers face, and 60 percent also believe that the change from Eliot Spitzer to Paterson will be good for New York. While 79 percent of voters have an unfavorable view of Spitzer, they rate his job performance as Governor as virtually the same as the job performance of both the State Assembly and State Senate. The Siena New York poll also shows overwhelming support for an income tax surcharge on millionaires and a small plurality of voters believing the State Senate should remain in Republican control.
"While two-thirds of voters are not very familiar with David Paterson, by a 58-10 percent margin voters have a favorable view of the new governor," said Steven Greenberg, spokesman for the Siena New York Poll. "As he assumes state government's top job, voters are inclined to view Governor Paterson favorably and they are both hopeful he will be a good governor, and optimistic that he will be a problem solver. Paterson's standing with voters did not change appreciably over the course of the week, despite the headlines and stories."
Six in ten voters say the change from Spitzer to Paterson is good for New York, while only four percent say it is bad and 24 percent say it will have no effect. Similarly, 60 percent of voters - including two-thirds of Democrats and half of Republicans - say they are very or somewhat confident that the new governor and state government will solve the problems faced by New Yorkers.
When asked to look forward two years to the next gubernatorial election, 41 percent of voters (52 percent of Democrats and 29 percent of Republicans) say the most likely statement they will make is that Paterson has become a great governor; 21 percent (15 percent of Democrats and 30 percent of Republicans) think they will say he has been an adequate governor, and three percent think they will say that he was not up to the job. African Americans, Catholics and upstaters are more likely to think Paterson will become a great governor.
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Thirty-six percent of voters think the governor's top priority should be jobs and the economy, followed by controlling state spending and taxes (31 percent), education (16 percent), health care (11 percent), and government reform and ethics (5 percent). Democrats focus on jobs; Republicans on taxes and spending.
"Voters strongly believe that pocketbook issues are where the Governor should focus his attention," Greenberg said. "And while one-third of voters believe the top priority should be controlling state spending and taxes, an overwhelming 72 percent of voters, including 60 percent of Republicans, think that the Assembly's proposal to raise the personal income tax on millionaires.
"Not surprisingly, Democrats and Republicans differ strongly over who should control the State Senate. By a 68-24 percent margin, Democrats want to see their party gain control. A larger margin of Republicans, 80-15 percent, wants to see their party maintain control. Independent voters provide the swing, with 56 percent favoring Republican control and only 32 percent favoring Democratic control," Greenberg said.
While it's obvious we've got some work to do with independents, I'm curious to know who these 24% of Democrats are.
A new Quinnipiac University poll out this morning shows broad public support for our new governor as well as the expectation that he will "restore trust in state government." The poll also shows strong support for his reelection in 2010 as well as strong support for a Bloomberg run for the governor's mansion.
New York State voters give their new Governor, David Paterson, a strong vote of confidence, with 75 percent saying he will govern effectively and 67 percent saying he will restore trust in state government, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Among black voters, 81 percent say he will govern effectively and 69 percent say he will restore trust in government.
By a 46 - 3 percent margin, voters have a favorable opinion of Gov. Paterson, with 51 percent saying they have not heard enough to form an opinion, the independent Quinnipiac University poll finds. Favorability among black voters is 58 - 2 percent. In a separate question, 65 percent of voters knew the name of the new Governor.
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With four choices of whom they would like to see elected Governor in 2010, New York State voters say:
* 29 percent for New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg;
* 27 percent for Paterson;
* 25 percent for former New York City Mayor Rudolph Giuliani;
* 11 percent for Attorney General Andrew Cuomo.
"Gov. David Paterson begins with good wishes. By big margins, New Yorkers think he'll restore public trust - boy, can Albany use that - and be able to govern effectively," said Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.
"Paterson isn't anonymous, like former lieutenant governors. Two-thirds of New Yorkers knew his name even as he was sworn into the top job. Hardly anyone has a low opinion of him."
New Yorkers also overwhelmingly agreed with Eliot Spitzer's decision to resign. Spitzer leaves office with a 31% job approval rating. They also support the way the state constitution handles the succession by having the Lt. Governor serve out the full term of a vacant governor without a special election.
Former Gov. Eliot Spitzer was right to resign, 81 percent of voters say, while 15 percent say he should have served his full term. Spitzer should be charged with a crime, 48 percent say, while 40 percent say resigning as governor is punishment enough.
By a 70 - 27 percent margin, state voters favor the current system where the Lieutenant Governor serves out the full term when the Governor leaves office, rather than holding a special election.
"New Yorkers split on former Gov. Eliot Spitzer. A lot think he should be charged with a crime, but a lot are inclined to let bygones be bygones - they think losing the job was punishment enough," Carroll said.
Concerns over Economy Push George W. Bush's Overall Job Approval to New Low
George W. Bush's overall job approval rating has dropped to a new low in American Research Group polling as 78% of Americans say that the national economy is getting worse according to the latest survey from the American Research Group.
Among all Americans, 19% approve of the way Bush is handling his job as president and 77% disapprove. When it comes to Bush's handling of the economy, 14% approve and 79% disapprove.
Among Americans registered to vote, 18% approve of the way Bush is handling his job as president and 78% disapprove. When it comes to the way Bush is handling the economy, 15% of registered voters approve of the way Bush is handling the economy and 79% disapprove.
A total of 78% of Americans say the national economy is getting worse and 47% say the national economy is in a recession. A total of 42% of Americans, however, say they believe the national economy will be better a year from now, which is the highest level for this question in the past year. This optimism does not spread to improvements in household financial situations as 17% of Americans say they expect their household financial situations to be better a year from now, which is the lowest for this question in the past year.
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Among Republicans (29% of adults registered to vote in the survey), 45% approve of the way Bush is handling his job and 50% disapprove. Among Democrats (43% of adults registered to vote in the survey), 1% approve and 99% disapprove of the way Bush is handling his job. Among independents (28% of adults registered to vote in the survey), 17% approve and 75% disapprove of the way Bush is handling his job as president.
When the Decider Guy hit 24%, I assumed he was sitting on his proverbial "baby kicking" number. I was wrong. Man, people really, really, really hate George W. Bush.
We finally have polling made public in the SD-48 special election and it confirms what I've been hearing from insiders over the last week or so. The poll shows a small lead for Darrel Aubertine but, within the MoE. Keep in mind that polling this SE is difficult. As I've said before, this one will be won on the ground on E-day. It's all about GOTV. Turnout is likely to be light and the weather could very well be terrible. It's February in the North Country and only three weeks after the New York Primary when many folks may feel they've done their civic duty already.
That said, this poll, commisioned by the Watertown Daily Times, looks great for Aubertine. Bruno's boy Barclay should be running away with this one. He isn't. Not only is Aubertine leading this thing, he's got much better favorables than Barclay. The Barclay campaign's relentless attack strategy appears to have turned many folks off.
Aubertine has slender lead STATISTICAL DEAD HEAT:Race for 48th Senate seat remains too close to call; 22.1% are still undecided
Assemblyman Darrel J. Aubertine appears to have a slim lead in the 48th state Senate District race, but it's still too close to call.
According to a Watertown Daily Times/Zogby International poll of likely voters, Mr. Aubertine leads Assemblyman William A. Barclay by 40.3 percent to 37.6 percent, with 22.1 percent undecided.
The margin of error in the poll is 4.5 percent, making the race a statistical dead heat.
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Home territory was important. Mr. Aubertine, D-Cape Vincent, had substantial leads in Jefferson and St. Lawrence counties, while Mr. Barclay, R-Pulaski, was well ahead in Oswego County.
Mr. Aubertine also enjoyed a much higher favorability rating, but that might not necessarily mean he will win the majority of undecided voters.
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Mr. Aubertine could have an easier time attracting undecided voters before the Feb. 26 election based on more favorable view that poll respondents had of him as opposed to Mr. Barclay.
There were 58.7 percent of those polled who said they had a "somewhat favorable" or "very favorable" impression of Mr. Aubertine. Mr. Barclay received the same marks from 47.2 percent of those polled.
Not only is Aubertine leading this thing, he's got much better favorables than Barclay. The Barclay campaign's relentless attack strategy appears to have turned many folks off. Also, their attempt to bang Darrel on the drivers license issue appears to have been met with a pronounced "eh."
Respondents also said that each candidate's premier issue was of little importance to them. Mr. Barclay's campaign created one television ad, one radio spot and one mailer about his opposition to Gov. Eliot L. Spitzer's proposal to offer driver's licenses to illegal immigrants. Mr. Aubertine responded by sending four mailers to constituents clarifying his position on the issue.
Of voters polled, 7.3 percent said that was the most important of five issues listed, while 48.5 percent said it was the least important of the five issues.
Barclay's hope is for a big win in Oswego County, but even a blowout there may not be enough.
Mr. Aubertine was picked by 51.2 percent of likely Jefferson County voters polled. Mr. Barclay was picked by 27.7 percent in the same group.
Mr. Barclay was favored by 50.9 percent of 216 likely Oswego County voters polled. Mr. Aubertine captured 30.3 percent from that group.
Although Oswego County has 46.5 percent of the district's total registered voters, Mr. Aubertine's advantages in Jefferson and St. Lawrence could be too much for Mr. Barclay to overcome, even with a big win in Oswego.
All in all, even with all the caveats I listed above, this is very, very good news. The GOP should be dominating this race. This district is custom made for exactly that. Instead they find themselves trailing a superior candidate. It's pretty obvious that they don't really know how to run from behind.
More on this and about what we can do to bring this one home on the ground this weekend later today.
There's a lot riding on this State Senate race between Democrat Darrel Aubertine and Republican Will Barclay, enough that someone's paying for a poll. A person who received a polling call was smart enough to jot down the questions and nice enough to share it with us. One question asks about a dead issue: Governor Spitzer's plan to issue driver's licenses to illegal immigrants.
In contrast to the first day of post Iowa polling done by Zogby, which showed a slight slip by Hillary Clinton (32%) and a slight uptick in Support for Barack Obama (28%), a hot off the presses poll from Rasmussen shows a significant Iowa bounce for Obama and a double digit lead.
Barack Obama, fresh from his victory in Iowa, now holds a ten point lead over Hillary Clinton in New Hampshire. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of the race found Obama with 37% of the vote while Clinton earns 27%. John Edwards is the only other candidate in double digits, with 19% support. Bill Richardson is the choice for 8%.
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In New Hampshire, Obama leads Clinton by five points among Democrats and by sixteen points among Independents. The survey indicates that 40% of the voters will be Independents.
Eighty percent (80%) of Obama voters say they are certain they will vote for him. Seventy-three percent (73%) of Clinton voters say the same along with 64% of Edwards supporters.
Eighty-five percent (85%) of Likely Primary Voters have a favorable opinion of Obama. Seventy-eight percent (78%) say the same about Edwards and 69% offer a positive assessment of Clinton.
Just 48% of Obama supporters have a favorable opinion of Clinton. Fifty-one percent (51%) have the opposite opinion including 22% with a Very Unfavorable opinion of the former First Lady. At the same time, 75% of Clinton supporters have a favorable opinion of Obama.
Among Edwards voters, 79% have a favorable opinion of Obama and 73% say the same about Clinton.
Obama is seen as the most electable Democratic candidate. Eighty-seven percent (87%) believe he would be at least somewhat likely to win if nominated. Seventy-six percent (76%) say the same about Clinton and 75% think Edwards would have a chance. Fifty-one percent (51%) of the Likely Democratic Primary Voters believe Obama would be Very Likely to win. Just 38% have such confidence in Clinton.
If these numbers hold, Hillary Clinton is in real trouble. Sure, she's got plenty of money and still leads national polls. She still leads in many of the Feb 5th Mega Super Duper Tsunami Tuesday states. But, can she really afford to lose Iowa, New Hampshire and probably South Carolina?
I don't think so. If she loses by a significant margin in New Hampshire, those national/Feb 5th leads will take a serious beating.
