Unequal Representation

by: Andrew C. White

Tue Dec 21, 2010 at 13:28:09 PM EST

For New Yorkers the bottom line is that we lose the 2 seats projected earlier. Florida gains 2 seats to match us as the 3rd largest states at 27 Congressional seats.

Despite the fact that Florida's population remains over half a million smaller...
 

EDS Report: NY To Lose Two House Seats

by: phillip anderson

Mon Sep 27, 2010 at 08:28:00 AM EDT

Report: Fla. adds 2 seats, N.Y. loses

A new estimate of House reapportionment gains and losses resulting from this year's Census reveals a larger-than-expected impact on Florida and New York. According to Washington-based Election Data Services, which reviewed new Census data from a private-sector demographic firm, Florida would gain two House seats and New York would lose two seats.

They would join two other states that already were projected to have multiple-seat changes. Based on the tentative Census data, Texas is expected to gain four House seats and Ohio likely will lose two seats.

....

Brace said that he had an "inkling" of the Missouri/Minnesota switch, but added, "We were most surprised at the shift of an additional district out of New York and down to Florida, even though that follows the population movement in this country since World War II."

....

Prospects in the two states that might each lose two House seats are more speculative.

In New York, where Democrat Andrew Cuomo is the front-runner for governor, Republicans have a chance to regain control of the state Senate; Democrats currently have a one-seat edge in that chamber. While Democrats now have 27-to-2 control of the congressional delegation, Republicans are waging serious challenges for several of those seats--if they win in November, some GOP first-termers could find that their seats are early targets of redistricters.

Another factor that will affect New York redistricting if the state loses two House seats is that one of them likely would be carved from the New York City metropolitan area, and the other would come from Upstate. According to early estimates, areas that have had net population losses include Nassau County on Long Island, and Upstate around Rochester and Buffalo.

Here's a question for a rainy Monday morning. If New York loses two seats, which ones should they be?

A Christmas Miracle: New York To Lose Only 1 House Seat

by: phillip anderson

Thu Dec 25, 2008 at 13:16:42 PM EST

The bigger deal, though, are the changes compared to last year's survey. The previous version of this study used three models rather than five, but all of them showed NY losing two seats. Now, all five EDS projections show NY losing just one seat. This might hardly seem like something to cheer about for a state which had 45 House seats just half a century ago, but I for one am glad.

So where does this seat probably come from? As it happens, it's a state known for its sizable ex-New Yorker population. Three of the five current models (and all of them the shortest-term) show Florida dropping a seat while only one of three did in 2007. Meanwhile, Minnesota now looks pretty certain to lose a seat while South Carolina appears set to gain one.

Thanks, Santa.

Amateur Demography... or Amateur Demogoguery?

by: robinia

Sat Nov 22, 2008 at 12:05:02 PM EST

Have some educational fun!

"Go Down, Moses... And Let My People Go"

by: robinia

Sat Nov 22, 2008 at 10:06:53 AM EST

I commented about the effect that prison populations have on the population counts that determine representation, and the way in which NYS's draconian Rockefeller drug laws, racist arrest and prosecution regime, and location of prisons in Republican districts conspire to hold Republican power and disenfranchise minority communities.  I've read enough about this to feel pretty certain about it... but, I understand that I have odd and unusual reading habits... So, folks, after the flip, I'll share just two resources with you that may inform you about why the reform of the Rockefeller drug laws is a better way than gerrymandering to democratize-- and blue-- NYS.  
PAGING HARRIET TUBMAN!

Redistricting conversation

by: simonstl

Wed Oct 10, 2007 at 18:30:39 PM EDT

I don't have enough time to write a real story yet, but if anyone wants to listen to a two-hour session on redistricting, I've posted the audio (42.7MB MP3) from an event this afternoon and may eventually get a transcript.

Assemblyman William Parment, who chaired the 2002 Assembly redistricting, talks for most of it, with varying levels of interestingness. A lot of it feels to me like running out the clock, and ducking and dodging points that might be genuinely troublesome if addressed - but at the same time I think what he says makes pretty clear what a broken process it is. Former Tompkins County Legislator Michael Lane speaks up for reform and independent redistricting, and Assemblywoman Barbara Lifton plays host.

I also brought some handouts, and I'll get more online soon.

I'll have more soon, but wanted to get that out into the world. Local elections are a massive distraction right now.

Update: The transcript is now available.