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A Few Quick Notes On Turnout And What Turnout Means

by: robert.harding

Tue Nov 04, 2008 at 19:35:36 PM EST

We have talked about turnout today and according to Kyle Kotary, who knows a thing or two about New York State politics, turnout is looking great in the Capital Region and statewide.

From Kyle:

75% turn out in Bethlehem so far...similar numbers throughout Cap Region and State. Schenectady, Troy, Albany...all huge turn out...numbers closing in on 80%...Rochester, Buffalo, NYC and LI turn out closing in on 75-80%...

With these numbers, Senate Dems will pick up State Senate...all local incumbents look safe though...look for Assembly 112 and Bruno Senate seat to be really close given this kind of turnout. Gillibrand will win comfortably and Tonko in a landslide.

Could SD-43 with Mike Russo as the Democratic candidate be that surprise I was talking about earlier? Maybe.

High turnout is a good thing. We knew turnout was going to be high. But we didn't know how high. This turnout is historic, not only for New York, but for the United States as a whole. With turnout numbers like this throughout the country, a lot of races are in play.  

Discuss :: (2 Comments)

Dixville Notch Results: Obama 15, McCain 6

by: robert.harding

Tue Nov 04, 2008 at 00:11:47 AM EST

The very small town of Dixville Notch, New Hampshire has headed to the polls and the very first results of the 2008 elections are in:

Barack Obama: 15 votes

John McCain: 6 votes

Even Dixville Notch, a town that usually votes for Republicans, has Obama fever.

UPDATE: There are three things I wanted to mention in relation to these results from Dixville Notch.

(1) Obama and McCain won their respective primaries in Dixville Notch's voting. Not that Dixville Notch's voting had anything to do with it (Obama ended up losing New Hampshire) but it is interesting that the presidential election ended up being those two.

(2) Democrats haven't fared well in Dixville Notch voting, especially in recent history. In 1992, Bill Clinton came in fourth behind George H.W. Bush, Ross Perot and Libertarian candidate Andre Marrou. In 2000, George W. Bush blew out Al Gore by 16 votes, winning 21-5.

(3) Prior to Obama, the only other Democrat to win Dixville Notch? Hubert Humphrey in 1968.  

Discuss :: (2 Comments)

"Yes, we can" in New York?

by: simonstl

Mon Mar 10, 2008 at 01:01:30 AM EDT

I'm starting to feel optimistic, for the first time in a very long time, about New York State politics. It's frightening to be feeling optimistic, maybe echoing my feelings every time I cheer for the Buffalo Bills in the Superbowl - but I see good reason for it.

My title probably has some Clintonistas worried, and a lot of people mumbling "but Obama lost here." I'm not actually that concerned about the Presidential race, though, but rather something that's feeding into it and feeding on it.

I had lunch Sunday with a friend who was a precinct captain for Obama in Texas. He talked about the thrill of seeing lines out the door of people who'd come together for a caucus to vote. Caucuses, though they have downsides, have the bonus that the people involved actually get to see each other, talk with each other, and maybe even get to know each other. There's a sense of coming together that's hard to achieve when voters jump into a shrouded booth and then come out again, their position a secret. It wasn't just the Obama folks who got to enjoy the spectacle, though - the party regulars, the people who'd kept the system running even when voters weren't that excited, got to see what energized voters can look like.

Mixed signs
Mixed signs (in Austin, TX).

This year's race has people talking, even here in New York, where Hillary Clinton was the obvious favorite and we all vote quietly and privately. I'm kind of wishing, in contrast to my earlier writing, that New York had voted later, but the conversations I'm hearing haven't shown any sign of stopping.

And what's in those conversations? Yes, some sniping about which candidate is better, but also a sense that, whatever his other failings or merits, Barack Obama is getting one thing right: we need to talk about what "we" can do, not only about what "they," the candidates, can do.

I've recently seen Dryden residents come together and build a new community center cafe, in a diner that was an icon of Upstate gloom in Spitzer's very first campaign commercial.

Mixed signs
New signs (in Dryden, NY).

There's a line in that Spitzer commercial worth re-thinking, contrasting with the action that citizens took on themselves to make that diner a sign of hope:

For every New Yorker who's been ignored, left out, who's been told, 'you can't fight City Hall,' so many times they've come to believe it. For every New Yorker without a voice, listen: there's one strong enough for all of us.

[text: Spitzer for Governor]

Spitzer: "I represent the people of the State of New York."

The message here was representation by a strong leader, not voters coming together to make change themselves, and that's proven to be a problematic solution to the problems we face here.

However, I look at our most recent cause for Democrats to celebrate in New York, and I see an ad where voters are running for State Senate, where the claim for the candidate is that "because Darrel Aubertine is running for State Senate, we all are."

That's not quite "Yes, We Can", but it's not that far away. (And yes, some of his ads were more conventional.)

I suspect that pretty much all of New York's elected leadership would prefer to lead. "Yes, We Can" is more than just a friendly claim, a slogan for a single campaign - it's a threat to the folks who depend on voters paying minimal attention to what's going on and having minimal hope that they can do something to change it. It's also a wakeup call to "every New Yorker who's been ignored, left out, who's been told, 'you can't fight City Hall,' so many times they've come to believe it."

Whatever happens in the national election, I see new energy and a different attitude rising to the surface among our citizens. Is it enough to melt the Albany iceberg? That's still difficult, no question, but reminding voters that their voices and their actions matter is a huge first step toward helping ourselves out of these snarls.

Discuss :: (3 Comments)

"Democracy broke out"

by: simonstl

Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 13:31:51 PM EST

I have to love this AP story on the New York Primary: First there's the title: "Analysis: Despite bosses' plans, voters won in NY primary". Then, in the details, we get to remember why the primary moved up, and what the unexpected result was:

Thank New York party bosses and the state Legislature for giving New York voters a chance of mattering in the presidential primary season this year.

And voters responded - loudly.

More than 33 percent of Democrats voted and 20 percent of Republicans voted. Most New York primaries have had turnouts in the teens, and were too late to make much of a difference in the national race. Even in 2000, just 19 percent of New York Democrats and 22.5 percent of Republicans came out in what would become the historically close George Bush-Al Gore election.

But democracy wasn't the first thought on party leaders' minds a year ago when they moved up New York's primary by a month to be part of the 24-state Super Tuesday, before any candidate had a lock on a nomination.

Eleven months ago, the Legislature overwhelmingly voted to move the 2008 primary with just two people in mind: Republican Rudy Giuliani and Democrat Hillary Rodham Clinton. Lawmakers figured the sure New York win for the pair of New Yorkers would give them a boost to the White House when they needed it most - early.

I can't help smiling about this. The leaders of both parties hoped to deliver New York State to their preferred candidates at a time when it would matter more. Instead, the much larger effect was an awakening of voters suddenly given a choice that mattered.

I'd really like to imagine that voters will stay this interested in other primaries, but know it's unlikely. I know that this seems to be the season of national discontent for New York voters, and I'm hoping that much of that discontent is eased over the next few years.

Still, it's worth pausing to consider what New York State's own politics might look like if we had a vibrant culture of contested primaries and contested races, showing voters again and again that their votes matter. I don't think it's impossible to get there - but it will take some change, not all of which is likely to happen, as this did, because party leaders mistakenly think it's in their interest.

(Crossposted at Living in Dryden.)

Discuss :: (1 Comments)

Inversion

by: simonstl

Sun Mar 04, 2007 at 20:36:39 PM EST

(Excellent observations! - promoted by am)

This is way abstract, but after reading "Three Men in a Room", talking with my legislator, and thinking about what I've seen in New York State politics since I was a wee lad (Hugh Carey is the first governor I remember), it seems like it works.

We normally describe political power as flowing up from the voters. As uninvolved as voters may be, and as corrupt as politicians may be, voters provide a key check on the power of politicians.

The New York State Legislature operates on a reverse principle. The check on the power of nearly all politicians comes from the leadership. If you want to get anything done, you have to listen to the leadership. If voters elect someone who won't (wrong party or otherwise disinclined), the voters can be punished by a denial of support for their legislator's projects.

There's More... :: (11 Comments, 244 words in story)

Legislators - selfish reasons to support reform

by: simonstl

Sun Feb 25, 2007 at 09:23:06 AM EST

(Another installment in a fantastic series - promoted by BrooklynRaider)

While the majority party members in each house aren't inclined to admit it, I think a dose of reform might make life in the state legislature a lot more fun for all of its participants, maybe even including the leadership. (Yes, it would take a different kind of leader.)

Why?

  • Much more room to move. Legislators could build the coalitions they need to address the issues they're working on, without worrying about whether the leadership approves.

  • Real work! Functioning legislative committees could hold a lot more hearings, study a lot more possibilities, and get to the bottom of things on a regular basis.

  • Seniority and merit might find better rewards. In a system where the leader is trying to maintain control, being a promising new leader is a ticket to obscurity. In a legislative system that's functioning, it's a ticket to getting things accomplished.

There's More... :: (2 Comments, 350 words in story)
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